804
FXUS62 KCHS 221832
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND,
THOUGH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND, THOUGH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
ALOFT, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, PLACING THE
LOCAL AREA ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHILE A SERIES OF H5 VORT
ENERGY RIPPLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SFC, A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON, REMAINING JUST NORTH AND INLAND TO THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE DAY PRIOR TO DEPARTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE LIKELY RESULTS IN DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH PWATS AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.5-2.0 INCHES
WHILE SFC TEMPS PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ALONG A DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
(WEST OF I-95) DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR REMAINS MODEST, SUGGESTING UNORGANIZED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, BUT A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR, PERHAPS WITH H5 VORT
ENERGY AND AN INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE PROMOTING SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT DISPLAYING
APPROXIMATELY 20-25 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. SOME HIRES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CLUSTER AND/OR UNORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION ATTEMPTING
TO REACH THE FAR INTERIOR THIS EVENING, BUT LIKELY TRENDING IN AN
ERODING/WEAKER STATE AS INSTABILITY WANES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. REGARDLESS, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING REMAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME INDICATION OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENINGS AS WELL. SOME
LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK, WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS PERSIST AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS SHOULD BRING A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN LOCALLY WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY, STARTING ALONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS,
THE SPREADING ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15-20 KT WILL
BE COMMON AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE SETUP IN
PLACE. SHALLOW GROUND FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY APPROACHING DAYBREAK
SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE LATEST TAF
ISSUANCE. A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT
THE TERMINALS WITH A SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS FOR LATER
TAF ISSUANCES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: TEMPO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A STALLED
FRONT IS POSITIONED NORTH AND INLAND OF LOCAL WATERS. THE SETUP WILL
FAVOR CONDITIONS THAT REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY (~15 KT) ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE, INCLUDING IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, AS A SEA
BREEZE CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS INLAND. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-
15 KT ARE THEN ANTICIPATED DURING THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN 3-4 FT, ALTHOUGH COULD BUILD TO 5 FT
BEYOND 30 NM FROM THE COAST TONIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST WILL DRIVE ONSHORE ESE FLOW EACH DAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS
MOSTLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODEST EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3FT/9S AND SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK IN THE
MODERATE CATEGORY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/DPB
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