412
FXUS62 KCHS 222349
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND,
THOUGH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND, THOUGH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
ALOFT, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, PLACING THE
LOCAL AREA ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHILE A SERIES OF H5 VORT
ENERGY RIPPLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SFC, A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON, REMAINING JUST NORTH AND INLAND TO THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE DAY PRIOR TO DEPARTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE LIKELY RESULTS IN DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH PWATS AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.5-2.0 INCHES
WHILE SFC TEMPS PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ALONG A DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
(WEST OF I-95) DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR REMAINS MODEST, SUGGESTING UNORGANIZED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, BUT A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR, PERHAPS WITH H5 VORT
ENERGY AND AN INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE PROMOTING SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT DISPLAYING
APPROXIMATELY 20-25 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. SOME HIRES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CLUSTER AND/OR UNORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION ATTEMPTING
TO REACH THE FAR INTERIOR THIS EVENING, BUT LIKELY TRENDING IN AN
ERODING/WEAKER STATE AS INSTABILITY WANES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. REGARDLESS, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING REMAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME INDICATION OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENINGS AS WELL. SOME
LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK, WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS PERSIST AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS SHOULD BRING A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN LOCALLY WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY, STARTING ALONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS,
THE SPREADING ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
00Z TAFS: VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SATURDAY. SHALLOW
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT THE TAF SITES WITH THE SEA
BREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE ADDED PROB30 AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THEY MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED TO TEMPO
GROUPS IN LATER TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: TEMPO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
TONIGHT: SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A STALLED FRONT IS
POSITIONED NORTH AND INLAND OF LOCAL WATERS. THE SETUP WILL
FAVOR CONDITIONS THAT REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE ANTICIPATED,
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN 3-4 FT,
ALTHOUGH COULD BUILD TO 5 FT BEYOND 30 NM FROM THE COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST WILL DRIVE ONSHORE ESE FLOW EACH DAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS
MOSTLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODEST EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3FT/9S AND SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK IN THE
MODERATE CATEGORY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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