213
FXUS62 KCHS 232352
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
752 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION AND KEY MESSAGE 1.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STABILIZING WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC
HEATING. THE BRUNT OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION TODAY HAS BEEN
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. A POTENT UPPER VORT IS PROGGED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING NEW
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST OF TODAY'S ACTIVITY. POPS TAPER OFF
LATER THIS EVENING, THEN SHOW AN INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN SC LATER
TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE, WITH COMPARABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE CONTENT. THE SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN BE
THE FOCUS FOR THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS, THEN COVERAGE SHOULD
EXPAND ACROSS INLAND AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.
NEXT WEEK, WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS PERSIST AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY, INITIALLY ALONG A SEA BREEZE BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WE
ANTICIPATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AT KCHS/KZJI/KSAV TERMINALS. FAIRLY ROBUST SSE WINDS
ANTICIPATED LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A STRENGTHENING SEA
BREEZE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE, WITH SOME LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (~15 KT) ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE TODAY, INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE 10-15 KT RANGE ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 3-4 FT, ALTHOUGH COULD SLIGHTLY BUILD ABOUT A FT DURING THE
NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL DRIVE ONSHORE ESE FLOW EACH DAY, WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE
WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODEST EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3FT/8S AND SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK IN THE
MODERATE CATEGORY AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
JRL
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