942
FXUS62 KCHS 251817
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
217 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS JUICY WITH
PWATS NEAR OR JUST OVER 2 INCHES, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE
OF CLIMO. RADAR THUS FAR HAS REMAINED FAIRLY ACTIVE, WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LARGELY MOVING INLAND WITH TIME WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, THE FOCUS SHOULD BE
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE,
THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. 12Z HREF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A 10-30% CHANCE OF 3"/3 HR
WITH A 50-70% OF 1"/3 HR OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE BULK
OF ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
PERCOLATE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
THIS GENERAL TREND WILL CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH THURSDAY. AGAIN, SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND MINOR FLOODING ISSUES, BUT
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL HELP EASE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK
FRONT MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY, BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD PATTERN
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE PWATS TO AROUND 2.0 - 2.2 INCHES FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES, COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED STORMS. CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES.
THE NBM CURRENTLY SHOWS A 20-35% PROBABILITY OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN OR
GREATER FALLING OVER A 72-HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN FRIDAY MORNING AND
MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOCATED ALONG THE COAST.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A WETTER PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK
AND WEEKEND, DETAILS ON EXACT RAINFALL TOTALS AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN SETS UP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE BULK OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME MVFR
CEILINGS BRIEFLY DEVELOPING TUESDAY MORNING, BUT PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE IT SHIFTS INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: TEMPO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG
AND/OR STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AFTER RECENT RAINS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN REMAIN OVER THE MARINE ZONES. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE SSE THROUGH THE PERIOD, FAVORING SPEEDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 3
TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: GENERALLY NO MARINE CONCERNS AS CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
RIP CURRENTS: AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH A MODEST EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET EVERY 7 SECONDS
AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BRS/ETM
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