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FXUS62 KCHS 252317
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
717 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PWATS NEAR OR JUST OVER 2 INCHES,
WHICH IS ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION HAS STEADILY SHIFTED INLAND INTO THE EVENING, LEAVING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FREE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY.
OVERNIGHT, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE MOIST THOUGH THERE ARE
NO FEATURES TO SPEAK OF. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY, THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FELL TODAY.
THIS GENERAL TREND WILL CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH THURSDAY. AGAIN,
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES, BUT MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL HELP EASE ONGOING DRY
CONDITIONS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK
FRONT MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY, BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE PWATS TO AROUND 2.0 - 2.2 INCHES FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES, COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED STORMS. CURRENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES. THE NBM CURRENTLY SHOWS A 20-35%
PROBABILITY OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN OR GREATER FALLING OVER A
72-HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN FRIDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOCATED ALONG THE COAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A WETTER PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND,
DETAILS ON EXACT RAINFALL TOTALS AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SETS UP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT VFR IS THE MOST
LIKELY CONDITION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
HINTS THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP INLAND LATE TONIGHT.
THESE MVFR CEILINGS WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO REACH KSAV,
BUT WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST VFR FOR NOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS JUST AFTER SUNRISE WHEN DIURNAL
CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPS WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE
HEATING. REGARDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD, THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED INLAND OF THE TAF
SITES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR BRIEF IMPACTS WOULD BE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY STEADILY SHIFTS
INLAND.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: TEMPO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, PATCHY
OVERNIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AFTER RECENT
RAINS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN REMAIN OVER THE MARINE ZONES. AS A RESULT,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE SSE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
FAVORING SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: GENERALLY NO MARINE CONCERNS AS
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RIP CURRENTS: AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH A MODEST EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET EVERY 7
SECONDS AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS IN PLACE FOR ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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