713
FXUS62 KCHS 261858
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
258 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. A
WETTER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. A
WETTER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH PWATS GENERALLY AROUND 2
INCHES AND DAILY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED, DEEPER CONVECTION
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS DROPPING A QUICK INCH OR TWO, AND
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING. HOWEVER, IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOCALIZED, WITH MUCH OF THE RAINFALL BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS SET UP WILL YIELD A WIDESPREAD PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE PWATS TO AROUND 2.0-2.2 INCHES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES, COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, SLOW-MOVING
STORMS COULD BE COMMON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KT, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. LATEST NBM SHOWS A 15-30% PROBABILITY OF 3
INCHES OF RAIN OR GREATER FALLING OVER A 72-HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN
FRIDAY AND MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A WETTER PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND, DETAILS ON EXACT RAINFALL TOTALS AND WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
26/18Z TAF DISCUSSION: THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGING TODAY, WITH CONVECTION FAVORING AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. KSAV WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO FROM
19-21Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT SHOULD SETTLE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS VARY IN REGARDS TO THE CEILING HEIGHTS, WITH
SOME SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING. REGARDLESS, 2-3 KFT CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BRIEFLY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE
PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES. IN ADDITION, PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AFTER RECENT RAINS.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR
VALUES BETWEEN 4-5 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
SC/GA, WHICH WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS NEARING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH A MODEST EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET EVERY 8 SECONDS
AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BRS
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