989
FXUS62 KCHS 262306
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
706 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. A
WETTER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
A WETTER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH PWATS GENERALLY
AROUND 2 INCHES AND DAILY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED,
DEEPER CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS DROPPING A QUICK
INCH OR TWO, AND ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING. HOWEVER, IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED, WITH MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL IN
THE VICINITY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS SET UP WILL YIELD A WIDESPREAD PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE PWATS TO AROUND 2.0-2.2 INCHES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES, COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, SLOW-MOVING STORMS
COULD BE COMMON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KT, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. LATEST NBM SHOWS A 15-30% PROBABILITY OF 3
INCHES OF RAIN OR GREATER FALLING OVER A 72-HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN
FRIDAY AND MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A WETTER PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND, DETAILS ON EXACT RAINFALL TOTALS AND WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI,
AND KSAV. OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME, BUT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DIRECT IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS IS LOW. AFTER
SUNRISE, WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP
AND IT'S POSSIBLE THERE COULD AGAIN BE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS.
IN THE AFTERNOON, IT AGAIN LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN INLAND OF THE TAF SITES.
THEREFORE, THERE IS NO MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE
TAF'S.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE
PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES. IN ADDITION, PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AFTER RECENT RAINS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL FAVOR VALUES BETWEEN 4-5 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL SC/GA, WHICH WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS NEARING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON
SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH A MODEST EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET EVERY 8
SECONDS AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS IN PLACE FOR ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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