371
FXUS62 KCHS 271844
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
244 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE GA/SC THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
- 2) AN UNSETTLED WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE GA/SC THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND
2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
ATLANTIC WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION, MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. HOWEVER, A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE THURSDAY COULD ALLOW
FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF LIFT.
WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TODAY AND THURSDAY,
DEEPER CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS DROPPING A
QUICK INCH OR TWO, AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING. HREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 20-40% CHANCE FOR 1" OR GREATER
RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH CHANCES
INCREASING TO 40-70% FOR THURSDAY. A FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED WHERE HEAVIER STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA; THE GREATER
CHANCES OCCURRING THURSDAY. HOWEVER, IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOCALIZED, WITH MUCH OF THE RAINFALL BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
HUMIDITY MAY RANGE A BIT HIGHER ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS AND THE AREA OF RAIN SOAKED GROUND INCREASES. GIVEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT AND HUMID. COASTAL
COUNTIES COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 103 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AN UNSETTLED WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
AS NOTED IN DAYS PAST, WILL SEE A SFC COLD FRONT STALL NEAR THE
REGION FRIDAY, RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
WHILE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING BY FRIDAY
MORNING, EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND SFC LOW LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST.
GIVEN THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM
MOTION (10-15 KT), DO WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT ANY STORM MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL - ESPECIALLY AS PWATS
NEAR 2 INCHES. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS, LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
MAINTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER A 72 HOUR PERIOD SPANNING
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT
SOUTHWARD IN THE AXIS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. THOUGH THIS AXIS
COULD STILL SHIFT MORE IN THE COMING FORECAST CYCLES, DO THINK IT'S
A TREND WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. IN REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER, LATEST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AMPLE LIFT AND MOISTURE - HOWEVER, WITH SHEAR
REMAINING MEAGER, THINK OUR CHANCES FOR SEEING SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TO BECOME
COMMON, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
27/18Z TAF DISCUSSION: ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY TRACK
NORTHEAST LIKELY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TAFS ARE HIGHLIGHTED WITH TSRA
TEMPOS AT KSAV AND KCHS BETWEEN 19-22Z. FOR NOW, THE TAF FOR
KJZI DOES NOT INCLUDE THE TEMPO GROUP AS THE SEA BREEZE IS
LOCATED FURTHER INLAND, AND OVERALL LOWER CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS
FROM CONVECTION. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH LOW STRATUS AND
SOME 2-3 KFT CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE BRIEF, SO THIS WAS NOT EXPLICITLY
MENTIONED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE WANING OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS
AND MVFR CEILINGS COULD RETURN OVERNIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT
MAINTAINED VFR IN THIS ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. IN
ADDITION, PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AFTER RECENT RAINS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3-5 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE FRONT PUSHES DOWN
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH A SURGE IN WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS.
THE SURFACE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND,
AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OR TWO MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT, POSSIBLY
PINCHING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A COUPLE TIMES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION ARE CURRENTLY LOW.
RIP CURRENTS: AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH A MODEST EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET EVERY 8 SECONDS
AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BRS/SST
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