953
FXUS62 KCHS 272342
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE GA/SC THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
- 2) AN UNSETTLED WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE GA/SC THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INITIATE ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL
HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE THURSDAY COULD ALLOW FOR MORE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF LIFT.
WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED, DEEPER CONVECTION
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS DROPPING A QUICK INCH OR TWO, AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING. HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE A
20-40% CHANCE FOR 1" OR GREATER RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH CHANCES INCREASING TO 40-70% FOR
THURSDAY. FLOOD ADVISORIES OR EVEN A FLASH FLOOD WARNING COULD
BE NEEDED WHERE HEAVIER STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA; THE
GREATER CHANCES OCCURRING THURSDAY.
HUMIDITY MAY RANGE A BIT HIGHER ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS AND THE AREA OF RAIN SOAKED GROUND INCREASES. GIVEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT AND HUMID. COASTAL
COUNTIES COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 103 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AN UNSETTLED WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
AS NOTED IN DAYS PAST, WILL SEE A SFC COLD FRONT STALL NEAR THE
REGION FRIDAY, RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. WHILE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING
BY FRIDAY MORNING, EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
AND SFC LOW LINGERS ALONG THE COAST.
GIVEN THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH SLOW
STORM MOTION (10-15 KT), DO WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT ANY STORM MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL - ESPECIALLY AS
PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS, LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL MAINTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER A 72 HOUR
PERIOD SPANNING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN A
SUBTLE SHIFT SOUTHWARD IN THE AXIS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.
THOUGH THIS AXIS COULD STILL SHIFT MORE IN THE COMING FORECAST
CYCLES, DO THINK IT'S A TREND WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. IN REGARD
TO SEVERE WEATHER, LATEST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AMPLE LIFT AND
MOISTURE - HOWEVER, WITH SHEAR REMAINING MEAGER, THINK OUR
CHANCES FOR SEEING SEVERE STORMS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TO
BECOME COMMON, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV. LATE TONIGHT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND
KSAV RESULTING FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT IMPACTED THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, MVFR CEILINGS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE CUMULUS AND
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE AROUND KCHS AND KJZI BEGINNING
AROUND 19-20Z AND CONTINUING FOR A FEW HOURS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED
PROB30 GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE
PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES. IN ADDITION, PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AFTER RECENT RAINS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3-5 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES DOWN INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH A
SURGE IN WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS. THE SURFACE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OR TWO
MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT, POSSIBLY PINCHING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT A COUPLE TIMES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BRING
BRIEF PERIODS PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION ARE CURRENTLY
LOW.
RIP CURRENTS: AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH A MODEST EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET EVERY 8
SECONDS AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS IN PLACE FOR ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page