369
FXUS62 KCHS 021859
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL OF THE SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
- 2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHARLESTON AND
COLLETON COUNTY COASTLINE WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE.
- 3) DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
ACROSS OUR AREA, PWATS ARE TRENDING LOWER AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER CONDITIONS BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. INSTABILITY HAS ALSO
BEEN RATHER LOW, WITH SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPES
BELOW 1,000 J/KG, MAINLY ACROSS OUR GA COUNTIES. AS A RESULT,
RADAR IMAGERY IS INDICATING LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
MAINLY ALONG THE GA SEA BREEZE AND A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND. CAMS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET, FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTLINE WITH THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS,
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE
(OCCURRING AROUND 10:15 PM). THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVEL IS 5.5
FT MLLW, SO IT WOULD REQUIRE A RATHER ANOMALOUS 1.5 FT
DEPARTURE TO REACH THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD OF 7 FT
MLLW. FOR CONTEXT, HISTORICAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A DEPARTURE OF
1.5 FT OR HIGHER HAS ONLY OCCURRED WITH ~7% OF ALL MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS ON RECORD. STILL, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE, AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THE
CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
COOL, DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AMPLE SUNSHINE
AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN NOTABLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS,
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY, WHEN MINIMUM RH VALUES COULD DROP BELOW 30%
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BELOW 25% IN ISOLATED SPOTS.
DESPITE BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, RECENT RAINFALL
HAS WETTED FUELS SUFFICIENTLY TO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
18Z TAFS:
KCHS AND KJZI: VFR. GUSTY ENE WINDS SHOULD EASE LATER THIS
EVENING, THEN INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KSAV: MAINLY VFR. THE PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION
WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY ENE WINDS SHOULD EASE
LATER THIS EVENING, THEN INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: NO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONCERNS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. RIDGING MOVES NEARLY
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH EXCEPTIONAL MARINE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND SWELL ENERGY AND WAVE ACTION WILL BE HIGHER THAN
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL
AREA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK IS IN PLACE FOR ALL AREA BEACHES
THURSDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ148>151.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ360-362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ364.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ384.
BRS
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