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FXUS62 KCHS 061131
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALOFT, MID-UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND, SUPPORTING AMPLE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SFC HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
ALL AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES TYPICAL OF EARLY
SUMMER (UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS COULD
APPROACH THE MID 90S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SUNDAY). OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH NIGHT, WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND
TO MID 70S AT THE BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID-UPPER
LVL RIDGING STARTS TO WEAKEN AND MOISTURE DEEPENS WITHIN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HIGH
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONT FROM THE
NORTH, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS FEATURE TO
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THE
SETUP WOULD MORE LIKELY FEATURE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, POSSIBLY ALONG A SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH, TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 KT
(HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WHERE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND SHIFTS INLAND). SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT, LARGEST
TONIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE S, WITH A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF A SURGE IN GUSTS ALONG THE COAST WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/DPB
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