742
FXUS62 KCHS 070628
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
228 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES EARLY WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY WEEK.
ALOFT, MID-UPPER LVL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES TODAY WILL SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND DEEP SOUTH EARLY WEEK.
AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SHOULD HOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND,
BUT THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY. AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AND A
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL FAVOR DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOUCH THE MID 90S ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MORE MILD UNDER
HIGH CLOUDS, ONLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID
70S NEAR THE COAST INTO EARLY WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY WITH TROUGHING APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND DEEPENING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AND/OR TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO REACH THE AREA. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE
FRONT DISSIPATES PRIOR TO REACHING THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. FEW TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, POSSIBLY ALONG A SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS. HOWEVER, BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH, GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 10-15 KT.
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD GUST UPWARDS TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE DURING AFTERNOON HOURS, WHERE A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS, THEN SHIFTS INLAND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN
2-3 FT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE MARINE WATERS MONDAY, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
APPROACHING ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE S, WITH
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF A SURGE IN GUSTS ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/DPB
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