347
FXUS62 KCHS 081718
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
118 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY AND LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY AND LATE WEEK.
ALOFT, MID-UPPER LVL RIDGING WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT SOUTH TODAY AS
A TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY RETREAT
FURTHER OFFSHORE, IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO
REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY WHERE WEAK H5 VORT ENERGY TRAVERSES ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH. ON TUESDAY, THE BACKDOOR
FRONT APPEARS TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER, BUT INSTABILITY AND DEEPENING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
DURING AFTERNOON HOURS, PERHAPS MOST FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF AN
INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE.
HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN IS IN PLACE UNDER AND/OR ALONG THE EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN/SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE STARTING THURSDAY
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SUPPORTING FEW TO SCATTERED
PULSE TYPE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK SFC FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH COULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS. HOWEVER, BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY, THEN AGAIN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED, WITH WIND SPEEDS TOPPING OUT
IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE (HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WHERE A
SEA BREEZE OCCURS). SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT TODAY, LARGEST
BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST, THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE ABOUT 1 FT DURING
THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT
TO APPROACH THE MARINE WATERS ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THEREAFTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE S, WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF A
SURGE IN GUSTS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
JRL
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