815
FXUS62 KCHS 090609
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
209 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEK AS WE RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- 2) AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 105 TO
110 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEK AS WE RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND THE RESULTING DRIER AIR ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING, POPS WILL BE MEAGER AT BEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. THIS
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND
SOUTHEASTERN GA, RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 105
TO 110 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THE PATTERN REMAINS SUMMER-LIKE LATE WEEK WITH MID-UPPER LVL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND SFC RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL HELP ADVECT HIGHER
DEWPTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WHILE AMPLE SUNSHINE OCCURS WITH DEEP-
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, SETTING UP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S ALONG
WITH LOW-MID 70 DEWPTS RESIDING ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND MOISTURE COULD YIELD HEAT
INDEX VALUES UP TO 105-110 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, PRIOR TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD THESE TEMPS/DEWPTS BECOME REALIZED, HEAT ADVISORIES COULD
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. PRECIP COVERAGE AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT WARMER SFC TEMPS
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FRONT
POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS. HOWEVER, BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH,
LIKELY STALLING AND/OR DISSIPATING PRIOR TO OR NEAR COASTAL WATERS
OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS THIS
PROCESS UNFOLDS, BUT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT COULD TIP
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, PRIOR TO
RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2-
3 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER,
MODEST SURGES OF SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY/EVENING,
WITH HIGHEST WINDS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WHERE A
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION OCCURS EACH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY TOP OUT NEAR 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/DPB
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