481
FXUS62 KCHS 092346
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
746 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK.
- 2) AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 105 TO
110 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK.
FAIRLY STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING MOSTLY
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH A WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY, THEN STALL
OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION, THOUGH WITH A NEARBY BOUNDARY,
CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING EACH AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 105
TO 110 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE
INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY AFTER THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 90S BOTH DAYS, THOUGH SATURDAY LOOKS THE HOTTEST. WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF 105-110 DEGREE HEAT INDICES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
00Z TAFS - WHILE MOST WILL REMAIN VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE CHS/JZI TERMINALS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S, CLOSE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS, PATCHY FOG
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, THOUGH ANY FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
IMPACT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS. THE WIND TOMORROW WILL HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO IT, OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING WITH
AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SWINGING THEM AROUND TO BECOME OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. SIMILAR TO TODAY, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE
CURRENTLY LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS. HOWEVER, BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
A VERY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
ENHANCED A BIT EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/JRL
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