935
FXUS62 KCHS 100617
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
217 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AS WE RETURN TO
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
- 2) AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 105 TO 110
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE I-95/COASTAL CORRIDOR THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AS WE
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES TODAY, WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND THE RESULTING DRIER AIR ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, A
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEASTERN GA,
RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 105
TO 110 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE I-95/COASTAL CORRIDOR THIS
WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SUMMER-LIKE LATE WEEK WITH MID-UPPER LVL
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/DEEP SOUTH AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING HIGHER DEWPTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WHILE AMPLE SUNSHINE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A
DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER, THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MIXING OUT OF SFC
DEWPTS OCCURS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WIND PREVAILS
AND THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH ARE PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND PERHAPS INITIATED ALONG A SEA BREEZE DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW-LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE COAST
ALONG WITH MARINE LAYER INFLUENCES LIKELY MAINTAINS HIGHER SFC
DEWPTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S DURING THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD SUPPORT
HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 105-110 DEGREES SHOULD AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ARRIVE LATE DAY AND/OR PRECIP COVERAGE IS MORE SPARSE
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR IF
CONVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE.
ON SUNDAY, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES LOCALLY. HOWEVER, WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE POTENTIAL FOR 103-108 DEGREE HEAT
INDEX VALUES STILL REMAINS LOCALLY SHOULD THE FRONT BE DELAYED
AND/OR PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES LESS THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KCHS/KJZI: CIGS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
AS A STRATUS LAYER MEANDERS ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA.
SOME SHOWERS OFFSHORE COULD ALSO MAKE A RUN FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COASTLINE EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
VCSH IN BOTH TAFS. WHILE THERE IS A THREAT OF SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS,
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE 06Z TAFS.
KSAV: PREVAILING VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS. HOWEVER, BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 15 KT, STRONGEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE
WHERE A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-3
FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN HOLDS ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE,
HIGHEST NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WHERE A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
OCCURS EACH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 2-3 FT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD TO 3-4 FT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/DPB
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