179
FXUS62 KCHS 111123
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
723 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 105 TO 112
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE I-95/COASTAL CORRIDOR THIS WEEKEND.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AS WE RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
- 3) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTY COASTS DURING EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 105
TO 112 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE I-95/COASTAL CORRIDOR THIS WEEKEND.
A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH MID-UPPER LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/DEEP SOUTH
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID SETUP THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHILE
AMPLE SUNSHINE OCCURS WITH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS AT A TIME WHEN SFC DEWPTS INCREASE TO THE MID 70S WITHIN
THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR, SUPPORTING HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE 107-112
DEGREE RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD THESE LEVELS OF HEATING AND
HUMIDITY BECOME REALIZED, HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE I-95/COASTAL CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COULD PLAY A ROLE IN WHETHER THESE VALUES ARE ACHIEVED
(ESPECIALLY SATURDAY) SHOULD PRECIP ACTIVITY DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A
SEA BREEZE PRIOR TO PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING, AND WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR IMPACTS ON LIMITING HEAT POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND. LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND SHOULD EXPERIENCE SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEAT INDEX VALUES, MAINLY DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL MIXING OUT OF SFC
DEWPTS WHERE A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
FOR SUNDAY, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER IS ANTICIPATED WITH A FRONT NEARBY AND/OR JUST INLAND, WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES LOCALLY. HOWEVER, WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WHILE THE MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE
ATTEMPTS TO HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO START OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD PRECIP COVERAGE BE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED AND/OR OCCUR LATE
DAY, HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AS WE
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE TODAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEASTERN GA, RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, PROVIDING AN
ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN HAZARD.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG CHARLESTON AND
COLLETON COUNTY COASTS DURING EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POST SEA BREEZE EACH DAY ALONG WITH
THE UPCOMING LUNAR PERIGEE (JUNE 14TH) AND NEW MOON (JUNE 15TH)
SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED TIDAL DEPARTURES ABOVE 1/2 FT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTS DURING EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. THE LATEST TWL FORECAST CALLS FOR 7.3 FT MLLW IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR SATURDAY EVENING, AND SIMILAR WATER LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING EVENING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES PEAK AND BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD
IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH TEMPO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPANDING
LOCALLY AHEAD OF AN ARRIVING COLD FRONT.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE MARINE ZONES INTO
SATURDAY. PREVAILING S TO SW WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTLINE EACH AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS ON SUNDAY, YIELDING AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
SURGING TO GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KNOTS, POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS
25 KNOTS FOR A SHORT TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/DPB
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