882
FXUS62 KCHS 120008
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
808 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 105 TO 112
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE I-95/COASTAL CORRIDOR THIS WEEKEND.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AS WE RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
- 3) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTY COASTS DURING EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 105
TO 112 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE I-95/COASTAL CORRIDOR THIS WEEKEND.
ON FRIDAY, SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
TIMED TO PUSH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING. THE RETURN FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WILL VERY
WARM LLVL THICKNESSES. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL TO SET NEW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HOWEVER, NBM
HAS BEEN VERIFY A BIT TOO WARM LATELY, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
BELOW THE NBM VALUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY PEAK EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. DEWPOINTS MAY SURGE INLAND BEHIND
THE SEA BREEZE, WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE COMBINATION
OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 105 TO 110. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE ROLE CONVECTION WILL
HAVE IN COOLING CONDITIONS WITH RAINFALL, CLOUD COVER, AND OUTFLOW.
HREF INDICATES THAT SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION, BEGINNING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
STORM MOTIONS WOULD TRACK STORMS TOWARD THE COAST, PASSING OVER THE
HOTTEST LOCATIONS. BASED ON THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, A HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY WILL NOT BE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE.
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE DAY VERY WARM, REMAINING NEAR
80 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNRISE, EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S SHOULD YIELD A LARGER AREA OF HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 108 OR GREATER. A HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED. HOWEVER,
CONVECTION WILL COMPLICATE THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
FOR SUNDAY, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER IS ANTICIPATED WITH A FRONT NEARBY AND/OR JUST INLAND, WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES LOCALLY. HOWEVER, WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WHILE THE MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE
ATTEMPTS TO HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO START OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD PRECIP COVERAGE BE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED AND/OR OCCUR LATE
DAY, HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AS WE
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY
AND SOUTHEASTERN GA, RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FORCING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
MAIN HAZARD.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG CHARLESTON AND
COLLETON COUNTY COASTS DURING EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POST SEA BREEZE EACH DAY ALONG WITH
THE UPCOMING LUNAR PERIGEE (JUNE 14TH) AND NEW MOON (JUNE 15TH)
SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED TIDAL DEPARTURES ABOVE 1/2 FT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTS DURING EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. THE LATEST TWL FORECAST CALLS FOR 7.1 - 7.3 FT MLLW IN
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR SATURDAY EVENING, AND SIMILAR WATER LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING EVENING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES PEAK AND BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
12/00Z TAF DISCUSSION: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINALS ALONG A SEMI-
PINNED SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VCTS WAS INTRODUCED FOR NOW,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS REMAINS TOO LOW FOR TSRA AT
THIS TIME. REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH TEMPO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPANDING
LOCALLY AHEAD OF AN ARRIVING COLD FRONT.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE MARINE ZONES INTO
SATURDAY. PREVAILING S TO SW WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTLINE EACH AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS ON SUNDAY, YIELDING AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS SURGING TO GUSTS IN THE LOW 20
KNOTS, POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS FOR A SHORT TIME
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 12:
KCHS: 97/2016
KCXM: 97/1998
KSAV: 100/1977
JUNE 13:
KCHS: 99/2011
KCXM: 96/1998
JUNE 14:
KCHS: 99/2010
KCXM: 97/1981
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 11:
KCHS: 76/2020
KCXM: 79/2020
KSAV: 76/2010
JUNE 12:
KCHS: 77/1986
KCXM: 80/1998
KSAV: 78/1899
JUNE 13:
KCHS: 80/2013
KCXM: 82/1998
KSAV: 80/1880
JUNE 14:
KCHS: 79/2010
KCXM: 81/2010
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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