051
FXUS62 KCHS 221815
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
215 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE #1 AND THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 18Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS FORECAST
WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE, THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE PINNED TO/NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON, BEFORE SLOWLY
TRACKING MORE INLAND (ESP. ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE).
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S,
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE). THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE OF PULSE-LIKE
CONVECTION IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL SYNOPTIC FORCING
MECHANISMS. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY KEEP
INITIATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND THEN POTENTIALLY BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
AS THE SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND/OR COLLIDES WITH OTHER BOUNDARY
OUTFLOWS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITHIN THESE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 TO 60 MPH, FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREAFTER, CONVECTION
WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY
WANES.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE BOUNDARY WELL MIXED FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST OF I-95 WITH UPPER 70S
ELSEWHERE. THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS AT ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES COULD
BE CHALLENGED, ASSUMING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DOES NOT DRIVE
TEMPERATURES BELOW RECORD LEVELS PRIOR TO 1 AM TUESDAY. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN STALL, REMAINING
NEARLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, OWING TO
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY, HOWEVER DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND LIMIT CONVECTION. THEREAFTER, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED DIRUNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS NO APPARENT SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
22/18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (ESP. KSAV). THEREFORE, A TEMPO
WAS NOTED FOR KSAV BETWEEN 18/21Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AND THEN AGAIN
BETWEEN 21/00Z. ALSO, AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN RATHER BREEZY,
GUSTS OF 18-22 KT WERE MENTIONED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
EVENING. AFTER THE SUNSET, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: BROAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO
RANG FROM 10 TO 15 KT, THEN INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE CHARLESTON WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY REMAINED PINNED TO/NEAR THE COASTLINE AS THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DELAYS THE ONSET. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS TO CENTER ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
CHARLESTON AND OFFSHORE CHARLESTON WATERS WITH THE RISK OF REACHING
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KT. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE WATERS. AT THIS TIME, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT BEING CURRENTLY ISSUED FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT, THEN INCREASING TO 4 TO
5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CHARLESTON WATERS BRIEFLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE TUESDAY MORNING, AND THEN STALL NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BECOME PINCHED
AS THE WATERS SIT BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTS
REACHING 25-27 KTS AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CHARLESTON NEARSHORE WATERS. A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED, MAINLY BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY REBUILDS
OVER LAND. THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 23:
KCHS:
78/2024
KSAV: 77/2017
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMES.
DENNIS
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