012
FXUS62 KCHS 222033
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
433 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE #1 AND THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 18Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS FORECAST
WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE, THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE PINNED
TO/NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON,
BEFORE SLOWLY TRACKING MORE INLAND (ESP. ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE). AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID
70S (AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE). THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE OF PULSE-LIKE CONVECTION IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
MEANINGFUL SYNOPTIC FORCING MECHANISMS. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY KEEP INITIATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
AND THEN POTENTIALLY BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED AS THE SEABREEZE
PUSHES INLAND AND/OR COLLIDES WITH OTHER BOUNDARY OUTFLOWS. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITHIN THESE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 TO 60 MPH, FREQUENT CLOUD-TO- GROUND
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREAFTER, CONVECTION
WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY
WANES.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE BOUNDARY WELL MIXED FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST OF I-95
WITH UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS AT ALL THREE
CLIMATE SITES COULD BE CHALLENGED, ASSUMING CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON DOES NOT DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW RECORD LEVELS PRIOR
TO 1 AM TUESDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN STALL, REMAINING
NEARLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, OWING TO THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY, HOWEVER
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
LIMIT CONVECTION. THEREAFTER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS NO APPARENT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
22/18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (ESP. KSAV). THEREFORE, A TEMPO WAS NOTED
FOR KSAV BETWEEN 18/21Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AND THEN AGAIN
BETWEEN 21/00Z. ALSO, AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN RATHER
BREEZY, GUSTS OF 18-22 KT WERE MENTIONED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER THE SUNSET, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: BROAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
WINDS TO RANG FROM 10 TO 15 KT, THEN INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY REMAINED PINNED TO/NEAR THE
COASTLINE AS THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DELAYS THE ONSET. AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT, EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS TO CENTER
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON AND OFFSHORE CHARLESTON WATERS
WITH THE RISK OF REACHING FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KT. THUS, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS. AT THIS TIME, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT BEING
CURRENTLY ISSUED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE
FROM 2 TO 4 FT, THEN INCREASING TO 4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
CHARLESTON WATERS BRIEFLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE TUESDAY MORNING, AND THEN STALL NEARBY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
BECOME PINCHED AS THE WATERS SIT BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTS REACHING 25-27 KTS AT TIMES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE WATERS. A
BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED, MAINLY BETWEEN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY REBUILDS OVER LAND. THERE
ARE NO ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 23:
KCHS: 78/2024
KSAV: 77/2017
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ360.
DENNIS
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