074
FXUS62 KCHS 231822
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
222 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
- 2) ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING "COLD" FRONT, THE INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE
HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S REMAIN EXPECTED
TODAY, AND WITH DRYING IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS, DEW POINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA KEEPING HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. THE
EXCEPTION IS FOR AREAS IN LIBERTY/LONG/MCINTOSH COUNTIES, WHERE
LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE MAY BRING HEAT INDICES INTO THE
105-108 DEG F RANGE. ISOLATED SPOTS IN THAT REGION MAY BRIEFLY
REACH 108-109 DEG F, THOUGH THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO
MARGINAL FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. GIVEN THE STRONG WESTERLY WIND
COMPONENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST OFF-SHORE, KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE AGAIN THE EXCEPTION GIVING THE
MARGINALLY HIGHER SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WHERE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE THROUGH, WITH PROBABILITIES
NEAR 20%.
LAKE WINDS: DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT WINDS 15-20 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER LAKE MOULTRIE TODAY WITH WAVES 1-2 FT. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM.
THE WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED THIS MORNING AT THE CHARLESTON
AIRPORT WILL LIKELY STAND, THOUGH TEMPERATURES DIPPED BELOW THE
RECORDS AT BOTH DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUILD WITH BELOW-NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
COULD APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS THIS WEEKEND.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALOFT, BROAD
TROUGHING WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING RIDGE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE, LIMITING CONVECTION INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, RELATIVELY DRY LOW AND MID-LEVEL AIR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, FURTHER SUPPRESSING CONVECTION, WITH NO
MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
EXPECT NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
DISSIPATING, BRINGING VARYING WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FRIDAY, WITH UPPER 90S BECOMING COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD EVEN EXCEED 100
DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD REACH 108-112F, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, SINCE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ISOLATED,
WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RELIEF FROM SHOWERS/STORMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT REMAINS LIMITED GIVEN THE FORECAST
RANGE, THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME HEAT, HIGH HUMIDITY, AND LIMITED
COOLING COULD NECESSITATE HEAT ADVISORIES WHERE HEAT INDICES MEET OR
EXCEED OUR LOCAL CRITERIA OF 108F DEGREES. FORECAST TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
23/18Z TAF: VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WEAKENING INTO THE EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARDS NORTHERLY WINDS BY DAYBREAK,
FURTHER
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: NO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONCERNS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
AND OFFSHORE ZONES, IN ADDITION TO THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES POSTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS
ARE WEAKER, ALBEIT STILL BREEZY, ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE ZONES
FROM SAVANNAH DOWN TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. WINDS WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A WEAK FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING A SWITCH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT LOCATED
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WILL DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE REGION. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
WINDS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. OTHERWISE, NO
MARINE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
BEACHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOW RISK
CATEGORY FOR ALL REMAINING BEACHES TODAY, AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 99/1998
KCXM: 100/1959
KSAV: 100/1998
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 23:
KCHS: 78/2024 <--- RECORD TIED AS OF 6 AM.
KCXM: 82/1998 <--- RECORD IS SAFE.
KSAV: 77/2017 <--- RECORD IS SAFE
JUNE 27:
KCHS: 77/2015
KSAV: 79/1952
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 78/2013
KCXM: 81/1998
KSAV: 80/1880
JUNE 29:
KCHS: 79/1977
KCXM: 83/1998
KSAV: 80/1885
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ340-
362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ360.
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