989
FXUS62 KCHS 232054
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
454 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO ALLOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WELL AS THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE SOUTHERN SC
COASTAL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
- 2) ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING "COLD" FRONT, THE INCREASED SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THE HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
REMAIN EXPECTED TODAY, AND WITH DRYING IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS,
DEW POINTS SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MAJORITY
OF THE AREA KEEPING HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S.
THE EXCEPTION IS FOR AREAS IN LIBERTY/LONG/MCINTOSH COUNTIES,
WHERE LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE MAY BRING HEAT INDICES INTO THE
105-108 DEG F RANGE. ISOLATED SPOTS IN THAT REGION MAY BRIEFLY
REACH 108-109 DEG F, THOUGH THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO
MARGINAL FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. GIVEN THE STRONG WESTERLY WIND
COMPONENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST OFF-SHORE, KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE AGAIN THE EXCEPTION GIVING THE
MARGINALLY HIGHER SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WHERE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE THROUGH, WITH PROBABILITIES
NEAR 20%.
THE WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED THIS MORNING AT THE
CHARLESTON AIRPORT WILL LIKELY STAND, THOUGH TEMPERATURES DIPPED
BELOW THE RECORDS AT BOTH DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUILD WITH BELOW-
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS THIS WEEKEND.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALOFT, BROAD
TROUGHING WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING RIDGE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE, LIMITING CONVECTION INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, RELATIVELY DRY LOW AND MID-LEVEL AIR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, FURTHER SUPPRESSING CONVECTION, WITH
NO MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
EXPECT NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BEFORE DISSIPATING, BRINGING VARYING WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY, WITH UPPER 90S BECOMING
COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD EVEN EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD REACH
108-112F, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY,
SINCE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ISOLATED, WE DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH RELIEF FROM SHOWERS/STORMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT REMAINS LIMITED GIVEN THE FORECAST RANGE,
THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME HEAT, HIGH HUMIDITY, AND LIMITED
COOLING COULD NECESSITATE HEAT ADVISORIES WHERE HEAT INDICES
MEET OR EXCEED OUR LOCAL CRITERIA OF 108F DEGREES. FORECAST
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
23/18Z TAF: VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WEAKENING INTO THE
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARDS NORTHERLY
WINDS BY DAYBREAK, AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: NO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONCERNS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS
INTO THE EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THERE. WINDS ARE WEAKER, ALBEIT STILL BREEZY, ACROSS THE NEAR
AND OFFSHORE ZONES FROM SAVANNAH DOWN TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. WINDS
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A WEAK
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING A
SWITCH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT LOCATED OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WILL DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. OTHERWISE, NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY BEACHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
LOW RISK CATEGORY FOR ALL REMAINING BEACHES TODAY, AND THROUGH
THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 99/1998
KCXM: 100/1959
KSAV: 100/1998
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 23:
KCHS: 78/2024 <--- RECORD TIED AS OF 6 AM.
JUNE 27:
KCHS: 77/2015
KSAV: 79/1952
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 78/2013
KCXM: 81/1998
KSAV: 80/1880
JUNE 29:
KCHS: 79/1977
KCXM: 83/1998
KSAV: 80/1885
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ360.
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