962
FXUS62 KCHS 232337
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
737 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUILD WITH BELOW-
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS THIS WEEKEND.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALOFT, BROAD
TROUGHING WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING RIDGE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE, LIMITING CONVECTION INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, RELATIVELY DRY LOW AND MID-LEVEL AIR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, FURTHER SUPPRESSING CONVECTION, WITH
NO MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
EXPECT NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BEFORE DISSIPATING, BRINGING VARYING WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY, WITH UPPER 90S BECOMING
COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD EVEN EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD REACH
108-112F, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY,
SINCE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ISOLATED, WE DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH RELIEF FROM SHOWERS/STORMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT REMAINS LIMITED GIVEN THE FORECAST RANGE,
THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME HEAT, HIGH HUMIDITY, AND LIMITED
COOLING COULD NECESSITATE HEAT ADVISORIES WHERE HEAT INDICES
MEET OR EXCEED OUR LOCAL CRITERIA OF 108F DEGREES. FORECAST
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE CHANGING
WIND DIRECTIONS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY TURN
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: NO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONCERNS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A WEAK FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT,
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND EVEN NORTHEASTERLY. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WELL, BECOMING 2-3 FEET BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT LOCATED OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WILL DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. OTHERWISE, NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 99/1998
KCXM: 100/1959
KSAV: 100/1998
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 23:
KCHS: 78/2024 <--- RECORD TIED AS OF 6 AM.
JUNE 27:
KCHS: 77/2015
KSAV: 79/1952
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 78/2013
KCXM: 81/1998
KSAV: 80/1880
JUNE 29:
KCHS: 79/1977
KCXM: 83/1998
KSAV: 80/1885
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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