117
FXUS62 KCHS 241823
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
223 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- 2) TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATE THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LIKELY APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS THIS
WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BELOW-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT SITS SOMEWHERE JUST NORTH OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE AND EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA.
WE ARE ACTUALLY SEEING SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WHERE A WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED OFFSHORE OF
HILTON HEAD JUST AFTER 10 AM. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY LOW, GENERALLY 1-1.25" AS WE APPROACH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE 24/12Z HREF
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT IF ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS
TODAY IT WILL BE ACROSS A LIMITED AREA THAT INCLUDES BEAUFORT,
JASPER, CHATHAM, EFFINGHAM, BRYAN, AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. BUT,
THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE OBSTACLES TO OVERCOME TO GET DEVELOPMENT
INCLUDING COPIOUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND CAPPING CENTERED AROUND
600-700 MB. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED. ANY CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND THE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASINGLY BECOME DOMINATED BY
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AT BEST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES APPEARING
TO BE FRIDAY, AND THEN PERHAPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERALL,
THERE AREN'T ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES TO FOCUS OR DRIVE
INITIATION, SO DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SURFACE HEATING
AND PERHAPS THE SEA BREEZE. ALSO, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ANY NOTABLE SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATE THIS WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LIKELY APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS THIS
WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW TO MID 90S
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN BY THURSDAY, MID TO UPPER 90S BY
SATURDAY, AND NEAR 100 FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE RISE, ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD,
YIELDING INCREASING HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WELL. THE PROBABILITY
OF HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE WILL RISE
NOTABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE IN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT THREAT REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW THIS FAR
OUT, BUT HEAT ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE EACH NIGHT
AND WE COULD APPROACH DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS AT KSAV. OVERALL CHANCES
ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED
AT BEST, BUT THE MAIN TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN WOULD BE BETWEEN
2-5PM. OVERNIGHT, THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG
COULD DEVELOP, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED IS ANY DOES FORM.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
TURN MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY
TOPPING OUT UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. FLOW WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE. SEAS SHOULD MOSTLY
AVERAGE 2-3 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: A PRETTY TYPICAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, WITH SOME MODEST SURGING INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE. WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS, AND A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 99/1998
KCXM: 100/1959
KSAV: 100/1998
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 27:
KCHS: 77/2015
KSAV: 79/1952
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 78/2013
KCXM: 81/1998
KSAV: 80/1880
JUNE 29:
KCHS: 79/1977
KCXM: 83/1998
KSAV: 80/1885
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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