460
FXUS62 KCHS 250006
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
806 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR ONGOING TRENDS. THE AVIATION
SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE MARINE
SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR ONGOING TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- 2) TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATE THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LIKELY APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS THIS
WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BELOW-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT: HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE 24/12Z HREF SUGGEST ANY
DIURNAL CONVECTION OCCURRING EARLY EVENING TO BE LIMITED ACROSS
AN AREA THAT INCLUDES BEAUFORT, JASPER, CHATHAM, EFFINGHAM,
BRYAN, AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
OBSTACLES TO OVERCOME DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING COPIOUS DRY AIR
ALOFT. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND
SHORT-LIVED, COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS SURFACE
HEATING WANES. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
FOR ALL AREAS.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASINGLY BECOME DOMINATED BY
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AT BEST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES APPEARING
TO BE FRIDAY, AND THEN PERHAPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERALL,
THERE AREN'T ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES TO FOCUS OR DRIVE
INITIATION, SO DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SURFACE HEATING
AND PERHAPS THE SEA BREEZE. ALSO, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ANY NOTABLE SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATE THIS WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LIKELY APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS THIS
WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW TO MID 90S
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN BY THURSDAY, MID TO UPPER 90S BY
SATURDAY, AND NEAR 100 FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE RISE, ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD,
YIELDING INCREASING HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WELL. THE PROBABILITY
OF HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE WILL RISE
NOTABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE IN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT THREAT REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW THIS FAR
OUT, BUT HEAT ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE EACH NIGHT
AND WE COULD APPROACH DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE SAV TERMINAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE EVENING WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 KT.
FLOW WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT, BECOMING 5 KT OR LESS
LATE. SEAS SHOULD MOSTLY AVERAGE 2-3 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: A PRETTY TYPICAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, WITH SOME MODEST SURGING INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE. WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS, AND A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 99/1998
KCXM: 100/1959
KSAV: 100/1998
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 27:
KCHS: 77/2015
KSAV: 79/1952
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 78/2013
KCXM: 81/1998
KSAV: 80/1880
JUNE 29:
KCHS: 79/1977
KCXM: 83/1998
KSAV: 80/1885
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page