285
FXUS62 KCHS 260649
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
249 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL KEY MESSAGES AND SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
LIKELY APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, LIKELY APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY. HEAT
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY. IT'LL BUILD
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
INTO MONDAY. A ROUGHLY 596 DAM 500 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY ON MONDAY. THESE HEIGHTS WILL BE ABOUT 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER NAEFS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. LIKEWISE, THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE THINGS WILL CAUSE
BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S, EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY WILL BE
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA, WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO
SATURDAY. ALSO TO NOTE, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NOT FALLING BELOW 80 DEGREES. THIS MEANS
THERE WON'T BE SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT.
IN ADDITION TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
70S WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
SATURDAY, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE 100-105 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES
POSSIBLE, CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUNDAY WE'LL SEE THE HIGHEST HEAT
INDEX VALUES SO FAR THIS SUMMER. THERE SHOULD BE A LARGE SWATH
OF VALUES IN THE 108-112 DEGREE RANGE STRETCHING FROM THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AND SOUTH ALONG OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. A
FEW LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THESE
LOCATIONS. THE REMAINING LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE. IF THIS PANS OUT, HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (108-112 DEGREES WILL BE MET). HEAT INDICES ON MONDAY
SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO SATURDAY.
THE ONE CHALLENGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. SO IT'S POSSIBLE THESE
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD BE BRIEFLY REACHED,
ONLY TO TUMBLE DUE TO CONVECTION. SO THESE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED EACH DAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
26/06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 27/06Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KSAV AND KCHS, BUT SOME DATA
SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY GET CLOSE TO EITHER TERMINAL AT TIMES.
PROB30S WERE MAINTAINED, BUT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 19-22Z AT
KCHS AND 00-03Z AT KSAV. KJZI LOOKS TO REMAIN DISPLACED FROM
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS MAKING A RUN FOR THAT TERMINAL DAYBREAK THROUGH MID-
MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: A PRETTY STANDARD SURFACE PATTERN FOR SUMMER
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE REGION POSITIONED
ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND CHARLESTON
HARBOR. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 KT
ALONG THE BEACHES AND CHARLESTON HARBOR. OVERNIGHT, NOCTURNAL
SURGING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE LEGS AS WELL AS
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG. HERE WINDS COULD SURGE AS HIGH AS
15-20 KT WITH 15 KT OVER THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS. HREF
PROBABILITIES FOR FREQUENT GUSTS 25 KT OR GREATER ARE RUNNING
20-40% SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SEAS
1-3 FT WILL BUILD 2-4 FT TONIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A STANDARD SUMMERTIME WIND PATTERN
IS FORECASTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BACKING OF THE
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE
WITH THE FORMATION OF THE SEA BREEZE. GUSTS TO 20 OR BRIEFLY 25
KT WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS THE SEA BREEZE CROSSES
THROUGH THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. EACH NIGHT, WINDS WILL VEER.
THOUGH, THEY COULD BE ELEVATED AT TIMES IF LOCAL JETTING
DEVELOPS.
RIP CURRENTS: GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND A 8 FT/2 SEC
SWELL WILL RESULT IN A BORDERLINE LOW/MODERATE RISK SITUATION
ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL RIP
CURRENT CALCULATIONS SUPPORT A LOW RISK WHILE THE LATEST RIP
CURRENT MOS OUTPUT SUPPORTS A MODERATE RISK. PER COORDINATION
WITH WFO WILMINGTON, A LOW RISK WAS MAINTAINED, BUT THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA
BREEZE ENDS UP BEING A BIT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 99/1998
KCXM: 100/1959
KSAV: 100/1998
JULY 2:
KCHS: 99/1996
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 27:
KCHS: 77/2015
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 78/2013
KCXM: 81/1998
KSAV: 80/1880
JUNE 29:
KCHS: 79/1977
JULY 1:
KCHS: 77/2024
JULY 2:
KCHS: 78/2025
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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