246
FXUS62 KCHS 261825
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
225 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT INDEX VALUES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE JUST SHY OF HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF REACHING CRITERIA ON
SUNDAY. THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS.
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND LIKELY REQUIRED
SUNDAY.
- 2) TEMPERATURES DECREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH HOT CONDITIONS BUILDING INTO THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL
CHANCES DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS,
WITH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS.
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND LIKELY REQUIRED
SUNDAY.
500 MB RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL BUILD INTO
SUNDAY, WITH A 594 DAM HIGH LOCATED OVER MISSISSIPPI BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE AT
THE SURFACE, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT BUILDING TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105 ON SATURDAY AND 103-109 ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS JUNCTURE, HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR SATURDAY APPEAR TO
BE JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ALONG AREAS EAST
OF I-95. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD CHALLENGE THE RECORDS AT THE
LOCAL CLIMATE SITES, SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT IN ADDITION TO THE HOT AND HUMID DAYTIME
CONDITIONS, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO CHALLENGE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOCAL CLIMATE SITES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME LOW 70S FURTHER
INLAND. THESE LOWS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, GIVEN
THE PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES DECREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH HOT CONDITIONS BUILDING INTO THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL
CHANCES DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MONDAY
MORNING HOURS, WITH SOME "COOLER" TEMPERATURES LAGGING BEHIND. AS
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AMIDST DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER CAN'T BE RULED OUT GIVEN SOUNDINGS
SHOWING 1500-2500 J/KG CAPE, BUT DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR. WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES DUE TO THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON SEA-
BREEZE, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY BE RUNNING A TOUCH ON THE WARM
SIDE. HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 100S MAY STILL OCCUR IN
BETWEEN ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, WITH ISOLATED SPOTS ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 100S GIVEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLOW SHIFTS EASTWARDS TUESDAY, SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE 850MB FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT, THOUGH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SUCH ACTIVITY RATHER
SHORTLIVED. EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME FOR WEDNESDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK, FURTHER DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT INTENSIFIES. THE ALREADY WARM/HOT AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR INLAND
AREAS. THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS
HEAT INDEX VALUES BEGIN TO REACH UP INTO THE UPPER 100S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, WITH CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. PROB30
GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT KCHS/KSAV THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR A LOW-END CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME 25 KNOT GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN THE NEARSHORE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER, EXPECT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE EXPECTED SEA BREEZE, WHICH IS WHEN WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND GUSTS INTO THE MID 20S BEFORE DECREASING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVEL WINDS, BUT WIDESPREAD SCA CRITERIA ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: EXPECT WEAK WINDS ON MONDAY AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA BRINGING VARIABLE WINDS. BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS AN INLAND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARDS EAST COAST, THOUGH CURRENTLY LOOKING TO REMAIN SUB-SCA
CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS: GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND 2-3 FT/8 SEC
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A BORDERLINE LOW/MODERATE RIP RISK
FORECAST ACROSS ALL SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL RIP CURRENT CALCULATIONS SUPPORT
A LOW RISK WHILE THE LATEST RIP CURRENT MOS OUTPUT SUPPORTS A
MODERATE RISK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 99/1998
KCXM: 100/1959
KSAV: 100/1998
JULY 2:
KCHS: 99/1996
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 27:
KCHS: 77/2015
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 78/2013
KCXM: 81/1998
KSAV: 80/1880
JUNE 29:
KCHS: 79/1977
JULY 1:
KCHS: 77/2024
JULY 2:
KCHS: 78/2025
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page