055
FXUS62 KCHS 041103
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
703 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE STARTING SUNDAY, THEN EACH
AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK.
- 2) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HEAT ADVISORIES
ARE POSSIBLE STARTING SUNDAY, THEN EACH AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK.
A DEEP RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST. THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN
EAST OF THE TROUGH THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, THEN ZONAL FLOW SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY SHOULD
RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE, WITH FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATING A STRONG
INVERSION CENTERED AT H85. THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FROM THE
UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG THE COAST. THE GREATEST
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE COAST AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE
INTO THE MID 70S, INDEX VALUES SHOULD PEAK AROUND 105.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO
PEAK FROM THE UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE MID 90S ALONG THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEA BREEZE, COASTAL DEWPOINTS COULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 70S, WITH MID 70S COMMON. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
PEAK AROUND 108 ALONG THE COAST, POSSIBLY PROMPTING HEAT ADVISORIES
EACH AFTERNOON. THE GREATER HUMIDITY AND DECREASING H5 RIDGING MAY
YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE, EACH AFTERNOON.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURE MAY REMAIN AROUND RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK, SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAY INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A
MINIMUM TODAY/INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION IS
LESS THAN 10%. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWATS WILL RISE BACK UP TO
NEAR OR OVER 2 INCHES, ALLOWING FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT ITS PEAK. ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT MORE PULSE-
LIKE STORMS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EACH DAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD SHIFT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
AFTER 17Z, WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
FAVOR 2 FT TODAY, INCREASING TO 2-3 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER GUSTS IN THE LOW
20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 4:
KCHS: 98/2023
JULY 5:
KSAV: 100/1902
JULY 7:
KCHS: 99/1954
JULY 10:
KCHS: 100/1986
KCXM: 99/1986
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 5:
KCHS: 78/2017
KCXM: 82/2016
KSAV: 78/2016
JULY 6:
KCHS: 79/1990
KCXM: 82/2024
KSAV: 78/2024
JULY 7:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 82/2022
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 8:
KCXM: 83/2016
KSAV: 80/1990
JULY 9:
KCHS: 80/1998
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 10:
KCHS: 81/1986
KCXM: 82/1986
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
ETM/NED
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page