561
FXUS62 KCHS 042107
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
507 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- 2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- 3) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS SUNDAY AND WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
INDEPENDENCE DAY, ALLOWING QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. IN
REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACH 105 DEGREES. WHILE THESE VALUES MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE
IN THE COMING HOURS, THINK THE DURATION AND OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH TO FORGO ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS, WE ENCOURAGE FOLKS TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS WITH
ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY. THIS CAN INCLUDE TAKING BREAKS IN
THE SHADE/AC, APPLYING SUNSCREEN FREQUENTLY, STAYING HYDRATED,
AND CHECKING ON VULNERABLE POPULATIONS LIKE CHILDREN AND
ELDERLY. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD, AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
INDEPENDENCE DAY, ALLOWING QUITE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. IN
REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACH 105 DEGREES. WHILE THESE VALUES MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE
IN THE COMING HOURS, THINK THE DURATION AND OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH TO FORGO ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS, WE ENCOURAGE FOLKS TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS WITH
ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY. THIS CAN INCLUDE TAKING BREAKS IN
THE SHADE/AC, APPLYING SUNSCREEN FREQUENTLY, STAYING HYDRATED,
AND CHECKING ON VULNERABLE POPULATIONS LIKE CHILDREN AND
ELDERLY. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD, AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 3: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS SUNDAY AND
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR GREATER, SUPPORTING THE RETURN OF A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY
PEAKS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MAINLY PULSE-TYPE
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
EACH DAY WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
05/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMOKE REDUCE VSBYS AT KCHS
LATER THIS EVENING WITH A LARGE FIREWORKS DISPLAY SCHEDULED TO
OCCUR NOT TOO FAR FROM THE TERMINAL. THIS HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS ARE AT
KCHS AND KSAV AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA
WERE INCLUDED 18-21Z AT KCHS AND 19-22Z AT KSAV.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE, WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS, AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
INLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 5:
KSAV: 100/1902
JULY 7:
KCHS: 99/1954
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 5:
KCHS: 78/2017
KCXM: 82/2016
KSAV: 78/2016
JULY 6:
KCHS: 79/1990
KCXM: 82/2024
KSAV: 78/2024
JULY 7:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 82/2022
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 8:
KCXM: 83/2016
KSAV: 80/1990
JULY 9:
KCHS: 80/1998
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 10:
KCHS: 81/1986
KCXM: 82/1986
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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