028
FXUS62 KCHS 042344 AAA
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 AND 2 WERE UPDATED DUE TO AN EARLIER ERROR.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- 2) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS SUNDAY AND WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
DESPITE THE CENTER SHIFTING OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN NEAR RECORD-HIGH MINIMUM
VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW),
PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
UPPER 90S INLAND AND THE MID 90S ALONG THE COAST. FOLLOWING THE
SEA BREEZE, DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST COULD RISE INTO THE UPPER
70S, WITH MID 70S COMMON ELSEWHERE. AS A RESULT, PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 106 TO 107 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST, APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
COULD PEAK AROUND 108 OR 109 DEGREES, BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF. HREF
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 20-30% PROBABILITY OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES
REACHING 108 DEGREES OR HIGHER ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON
SUNDAY. THUS, NO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A
SIMILAR PATTERN WILL EMERGE EACH DAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES NEARING OR REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON. FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED TO DETERMINE WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BECOME
NECESSARY ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS SUNDAY AND
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR GREATER, SUPPORTING THE RETURN OF A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY
PEAKS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MAINLY PULSE-TYPE
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
EACH DAY WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
05/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMOKE REDUCE VSBYS AT KCHS
LATER THIS EVENING WITH A LARGE FIREWORKS DISPLAY SCHEDULED TO
OCCUR NOT TOO FAR FROM THE TERMINAL. THIS HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS ARE AT
KCHS AND KSAV AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA
WERE INCLUDED 18-21Z AT KCHS AND 19-22Z AT KSAV.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE, WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS, AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
INLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 5:
KSAV: 100/1902
JULY 7:
KCHS: 99/1954
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 5:
KCHS: 78/2017
KCXM: 82/2016
KSAV: 78/2016
JULY 6:
KCHS: 79/1990
KCXM: 82/2024
KSAV: 78/2024
JULY 7:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 82/2022
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 8:
KCXM: 83/2016
KSAV: 80/1990
JULY 9:
KCHS: 80/1998
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 10:
KCHS: 81/1986
KCXM: 82/1986
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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