114
FXUS62 KCHS 051842
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
242 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL KEY MESSAGES AND SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
- 3) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THIS COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S HAS RESULTED IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES - WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES NOTED ALONG
THE COAST. THUS, BELIEVE THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY (WHICH
REMAINS VALID UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING) REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
IN REGARD TO PRECIPITATION, CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE INSTABILITY IS MORE THAN
PLENTIFUL (SBCAPE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG) AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE APPROACHING 8 DEGC/KM, OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER,
SUGGESTING THAT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION WOULD BE FAVORED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS, IN REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER, EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS
TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, AS DCAPE VALUES APPROACH 1200 J/KG - WITH
SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING SECONDARY HAZARDS. GIVEN THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS IN PLACE, COUPLED WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES, ALSO
CAN'T RULE OUT SEEING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY, ANY
RAIN WILL BE A WELCOMED REPRIEVE, WITH FLOODING CONCERNING EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MINIMAL GIVEN THE ON-GOING DROUGHT IN PLACE. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, WILL SEE LOWS REMAIN
ON THE MILDER SIDE AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST,
SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, AND COMBINED WITH ELEVATED
HUMIDITY, IT WILL FEEL EVEN HOTTER. HEAT INDICES OVER 100F ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST GENERALLY IN
THE 105-110F RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN NEAR
RECORD-HIGH MINIMUM VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW), PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TO
DETERMINE WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BECOME NEEDED ON A DAY-TO-DAY
BASIS.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK
IN THE FORECAST, ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIMIT THE
DURATION WHERE HEAT INDICES REACH THE 108+ CRITERIA. REGARDLESS,
THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING A RISK
OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY TO THOSE MORE VULNERABLE TO HEAT
OR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS THIS WEEK.
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK,
WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS, BEFORE DWINDLING AFTER SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. ENVIRONMENT FAVORS MAINLY PULSE-TYPE
CONVECTION, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THIS JIVES WITH SOME
OF THE AI/MLP GUIDANCE AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
IN ANY STORMS WITH PWATS NEAR OR OVER 2", BUT FLOODING RISK LOOKS
LOW ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH 23Z, WHICH HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED
VIA TEMPOS AT EACH TERMINAL. SHOULD THEN SEE CONVECTION
GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET, ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN
10 TO 15 KTS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR 3 FT, INCREASING TO 3-4 FT OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ON
TAP FOR THIS WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BACK MORE
TO THE SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4
FEET.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 5:
KSAV: 100/1902
JULY 7:
KCHS: 99/1954
JULY 10:
KCHS: 100/1986
KCXM: 99/1986
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 5:
KCHS: 78/2017
KCXM: 82/2016
KSAV: 78/2016
JULY 6:
KCHS: 79/1990
KCXM: 82/2024
KSAV: 78/2024
JULY 7:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 82/2022
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 8:
KCXM: 83/2016
KSAV: 80/1990
JULY 9:
KCHS: 80/1998
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 10:
KCHS: 81/1986
KCXM: 82/1986
JULY 11:
KCHS: 80/2016
KCXM: 82/2016
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ217>219-
239>241.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045-148>152.
MARINE...NONE.
BRS/SST
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