692
FXUS62 KCHS 061106
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
706 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
- 3) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
MONDAY: KCLX HAS DETECTED PERIODIC ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE GA THIS MORNING. SCHC POPS WERE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WAS LIKELY
RESPONDING TO A WEAK IMPULSE WITH THE SW/NE FLOW EAST OF A H5
TROUGH. WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION MAY YIELD SBCAPE BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG, ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, TRIGGERED BY PASSING WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND THE SEA BREEZE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, LIKELY RESULTING IN PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH COLLAPSING WATER-LOADED UPDRAFTS.
OUTSIDE THE MORNING CONVECTION, CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE NEAR 90.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO 90 DEGREES BY LATE THIS MORNING, THEN
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY MID-AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, POSSIBLY AROUND 80 NEAR
THE BEACHES. THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED
DEWPOINTS MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 ALONG
THE COAST FROM SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE SANTEE RIVER. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7
PM TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK, LEADING TO A CONTINUED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
EACH DAY, WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100+. AREAS EAST OF I-95 AND CLOSER
TO THE COAST WILL SEE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES, GENERALLY AVERAGING
IN THE 105-110F RANGE. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE REQUIRED. LITTLE
RELIEF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
POTENTIAL RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. NWS HEATRISK CURRENTLY SHOWS A MAJOR
(LEVEL 3/4) HEATRISK EACH DAY, SO REGARDLESS OF HEAT PRODUCT
ISSUANCE, THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BRING A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY TO THOSE MORE
VULNERABLE TO HEAT OR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS THIS WEEK.
THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH RIDGING
THE PRIMARY FEATURE ALOFT. LARGER SCALE FORCING IS LACKING, BUT
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY LARGELY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS, BEFORE DWINDLING AFTER SUNSET WITH
LOSS OF INSOLATION. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS MAINLY PULSE-TYPE
CONVECTION, A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS, BUT FLOODING RISK IS LOW ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
12Z TAFS: TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR OR
OVER THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-24Z. THE KCHS TAF
WILL FEATURE A TEMPO FOR GUSTY WINDS AND -TSRA, WITH A PROB30 AT
KSAV. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT SOUTH
WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR 3 FT TODAY, INCREASING TO 3-4 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEK,
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING BACKING MORE TO THE SOUTH FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. GUSTS WILL LARGELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW 20
KT RANGE, BUT LATER IN THE WEEK, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
SOME 25 KNOT GUSTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-5 FEET.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 7:
KCHS: 99/1954
JULY 8:
KCHS: 100/2016
KCXM: 100/1907
KSAV: 101/2010
JULY 9:
KCXM: 99/1986
JULY 10:
KCHS: 100/1986
KCXM: 99/1986
KSAV: 102/1879
JULY 11:
KCHS: 102/1986
KCXM: 100/2001
JULY 12:
KCXM: 97/1966
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 6:
KCHS: 79/1990
KCXM: 82/2024
KSAV: 78/2024
JULY 7:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 82/2022
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 8:
KCHS: 82/2016
KCXM: 83/2016
KSAV: 80/1990
JULY 9:
KCHS: 80/1998
KCXM: 85/1998
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 10:
KCHS: 81/1986
KCXM: 82/1986
JULY 11:
KCHS: 80/2016
KCXM: 82/2016
JULY 12:
KCHS: 79/2020
KCXM: 82/1998
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ045-148>152.
MARINE...NONE.
ETM/NED
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