156
FXUS62 KCHS 061746
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL KEY MESSAGES AND SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY. A COUPLE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
- 3) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY. A COUPLE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SEA BREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THIS COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S HAS
RESULTED IN HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES - WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES NOTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THUS, BELIEVE THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY (WHICH REMAINS VALID UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING)
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE ADVANCING SEA BREEZE. WHILE THERE IS AMPLE SBCAPE (UP TO
2500 J/KG), OVERALL SHEAR IS RATHER MEAGER - SUGGESTING THAT STORMS
WILL REMAIN MORE PULSE BASED RATHER THAN ORGANIZED OR LINEAR.
NONETHELESS, WITH DCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG, AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATE BETWEEN 7.5 TO 8 DEGC/KM, CAN'T RULE OUT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT BECOMES
STRONG TO SEVERE. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. FORTUNATELY, ANY RAIN
WILL BE A WELCOMED REPRIEVE, WITH FLOODING CONCERNING EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MINIMAL GIVEN THE ON-GOING DROUGHT IN PLACE. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY
AFTER SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK, LEADING TO A CONTINUED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
EACH DAY, WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100+. AREAS EAST OF I-95 AND CLOSER
TO THE COAST WILL SEE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES, GENERALLY AVERAGING
IN THE 107-112F RANGE AS DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR, INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON METRO AREAS,
FOR TUESDAY AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. NWS
HEATRISK CURRENTLY SHOWS A MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) HEATRISK EACH DAY, SO
REGARDLESS OF HEAT PRODUCT ISSUANCE, THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS,
ESPECIALLY TO THOSE MORE VULNERABLE TO HEAT OR THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS THIS WEEK.
THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH RIDGING
THE PRIMARY FEATURE ALOFT. LARGER SCALE FORCING IS LACKING, BUT
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY LARGELY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS, BEFORE DWINDLING AFTER SUNSET WITH
LOSS OF INSOLATION. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS MAINLY PULSE-TYPE
CONVECTION, A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS, BUT FLOODING RISK IS LOW ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AVIATION: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, NEAR OR OVER THE KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
BETWEEN 20-24Z. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR TSTM IMPACTS AT
THE TERMINALS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT KCHS AND
KSAV.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN
10 TO 15 KTS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR 3 FT, INCREASING TO 3-4 FT OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEK,
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING BACKING MORE TO THE SOUTH FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. GUSTS WILL LARGELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW 20
KT RANGE, BUT LATER IN THE WEEK, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
SOME 25 KNOT GUSTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-5 FEET.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 7:
KCHS: 99/1954
JULY 8:
KCHS: 100/2016
KCXM: 100/1907
KSAV: 101/2010
JULY 9:
KCXM: 99/1986
JULY 10:
KCHS: 100/1986
KCXM: 99/1986
KSAV: 102/1879
JULY 11:
KCHS: 102/1986
KCXM: 100/2001
JULY 12:
KCXM: 97/1966
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 6:
KCHS: 79/1990
KCXM: 82/2024
KSAV: 78/2024
JULY 7:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 82/2022
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 8:
KCHS: 82/2016
KCXM: 83/2016
KSAV: 80/1990
JULY 9:
KCHS: 80/1998
KCXM: 85/1998
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 10:
KCHS: 81/1986
KCXM: 82/1986
JULY 11:
KCHS: 80/2016
KCXM: 82/2016
JULY 12:
KCHS: 79/2020
KCXM: 82/1998
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ217>219-
239-241.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ045-
148>152.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045-148>152.
MARINE...NONE.
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