011
FXUS62 KCHS 071105
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
705 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS AND MARINE SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO POCKETS
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- 3) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION LAST EVENING ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. THIN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT INSOLATION THIS
MORNING. MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES BY NOON, THEN PEAKING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST WILL YIELD
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 TO 110. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM.
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. SBCAPE VALUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MAY EXCEED 3500 J/KG DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A CLOSED H5 LOW
CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND H5 593DAM RIDGE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. SHEAR BETWEEN THE SFC TO H5 IS WEAK, BUT IS NOTABLY
GREATER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. 0Z HREF INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SC/GA
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95 WILL LIKELY DEVELOP STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH STORM TOPS AROUND
50 KFT. COLLAPSING WATER- LOADED UPDRAFTS MAY YIELD LOCALIZED
AREAS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF
THE SC LOWCOUNTRY WITH A 5% RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LINING
UP WELL WITH SOME ML PRODUCTS. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION,
STORM MOTIONS AROUND 10 MPH AND PW AROUND 2.2 INCHES WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SWATHS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES. FLOOD
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME COASTAL SC/GA COUNTIES,
INCLUDING BERKELEY COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK, LEADING TO A CONTINUED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
EACH DAY, WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100+. AREAS EAST OF I-95 AND CLOSER
TO THE COAST WILL SEE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES, GENERALLY AVERAGING
IN THE 107-113F RANGE AS DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES OR EXTREME HEAT
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR, INCLUDING MUCH OF
THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON METRO AREAS, FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR POTENTIAL RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. NWS HEATRISK CURRENTLY SHOWS A
MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) HEATRISK EACH DAY, SO REGARDLESS OF HEAT PRODUCT
ISSUANCE, THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BRING A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY TO THOSE MORE
VULNERABLE TO HEAT OR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH RIDGING
THE PRIMARY FEATURE ALOFT. LARGER SCALE FORCING IS LACKING, BUT
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY LARGELY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS, BEFORE DWINDLING AFTER SUNSET WITH
LOSS OF INSOLATION. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS MAINLY PULSE-TYPE
CONVECTION, A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS, BUT FLOODING RISK IS LOW ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
12Z TAFS: TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR OR
OVER THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-24Z. THE KCHS AND KSAV TAFS WILL
FEATURE A TEMPO FOR GUSTY WINDS AND -TSRA, WITH A PROB30 AT
KJZI. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR TSTM IMPACTS AT
THE TERMINALS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT KCHS AND
KSAV.
MARINE
EARLY THIS MORNING: AT SUNRISE, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR DETECTED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NEAR AND OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WERE
LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG A LAND BREEZE, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS NEAR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SLIDE OFF THE GA/SC COAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. OTHERWISE, THE PRESSURE PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR 3 TO
4 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEK,
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING BACKING MORE TO THE SOUTH FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. GUSTS WILL LARGELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW 20
KT RANGE, BUT LATER IN THE WEEK, THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE AT SEEING
SOME 25 KNOT GUSTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-5 FEET.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 8:
KCHS: 100/2016
KSAV: 101/2010
JULY 10:
KCHS: 100/1986
KCXM: 99/1986
JULY 11:
KCXM: 100/2001
JULY 12:
KCXM: 97/1966
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 7:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 82/2022
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 8:
KCHS: 82/2016
KCXM: 83/2016
KSAV: 80/1990
JULY 9:
KCHS: 80/1998
KCXM: 85/1998
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 10:
KCHS: 81/1986
KCXM: 82/1986
JULY 11:
KCHS: 80/2016
KCXM: 82/2016
JULY 12:
KCHS: 79/2020
KCXM: 82/1998
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ217>219-239-241.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ045-148>152.
MARINE...NONE.
NED
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