048
FXUS62 KCHS 081824
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
224 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
- 2) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
THE HEAT IS ON ACROSS THE LOW COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS
ON THE HUMID SIDE OF THE SEABREEZE APPROACHING 110 TO 113 MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL STRIP. GIVEN THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE HOLDING OFF MOST CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, ITS IS PROBABLY SAFE TO SAY THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD
REACH AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA AND REMAIN AT ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. EXCESSIVE HEAT CONDITIONS
SEEM TO BE OCCURRING RIGHT AT OR JUST EAST OF THE SEABREEZE
WHERE DOWNRIGHT DISGUSTING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 ARE COMBINING WITH AIR TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE
ONLY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BE ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THAT MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY. VERY LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S AND HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS. THESE WARM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN
PROLONGED HEAT STRESS, ESPECIALLY FOR MORE VULNERABLE
COMMUNITIES AND THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OVERNIGHT.
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, BUT THEN STARTS TO GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED TROUGHING DRIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK QUITE SIMILAR EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF TRIPLE
DIGITS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF EACH DAY OUT OF THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S. THEN
THE SEA BREEZE WILL TAKE HOLD AND PUSH MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS
INLAND. THE RESULT IS EXPECTED TO YIELD THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE
RANGE AND SOME AREAS INTO THE 110-115 DEGREE RANGE. FURTHER INLAND,
HEAT INDICES SHOULD MOSTLY TOP OUT AROUND 105. TO MAKE CONDITIONS
MORE UNCOMFORTABLE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE UPPER
70S, AND EVEN LOW 80S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. FOR HEAT HEADLINES, THE
CONFIGURATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL BE
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING INLAND
BERKELEY AS AN ADVISORY AND NOT A WARNING. THEN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, THE FOOTPRINT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY SHRINK AND
WE MIGHT NOT EVEN NEED AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AREA. ALSO,
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON DOES NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTION TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. STARTING
SUNDAY, AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL OFF
AS A BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION AND SUPPORTS INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK.
SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALREADY
SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE,
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON METRO ACROSS BERKELEY COUNTY.
OVERALL GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS RATHER WEAK WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, GIVEN TRENDS AND THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE SEABREEZE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN RATHER WARM 850 MB TEMPS
FROM SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE, STORMS MAY STRUGGLE AND
WILL LIKELY FOCUS WHERE WHAT OUTFLOWS THAT DO DEVELOP INTERACT
WITH THE SEABREEZE. STORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EARLY EVENING.
THE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ONLY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, DUE
TO A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE FEATURES TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LOW END THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, MAINLY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
OCCUR. AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK, A PATTERN CHANGE
LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GET
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS A WEST TO EAST TROUGH DROPS IN FROM
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS. INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED, WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY BRING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE
AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME RISK OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST. WINDS HAVE REMAINED LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST;
EXCEPT BEHIND THE SEABREEZE WHERE SOME GUSTIER CONDITIONS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWS SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEABREEZE INTERFACE MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KCHS. WINDS
AND STORMS SHOULD RELAX DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR. THERE WILL BE A LOW END
RISK OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PRIMARILY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: OVERALL PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO
15 KTS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR 3 TO 4 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE ON REPEAT
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW SURGES EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SOLIDLY REACH THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE
EACH DAY, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS ALONG THE SC COAST AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE,
BUT COULD RISE UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING TIMES OF PEAK SURGING IN THE
EVENING HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED, MAINLY FOR THE SC WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THEN BY SUNDAY, AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY, CONDITIONS
SHOULD FEATURE LOWER WIND SPEEDS AS A BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 8:
KCHS: 100/2016
KSAV: 101/2010
JULY 9:
KCXM: 99/1986
JULY 10:
KCHS: 100/1986
KCXM: 99/1986
KSAV: 102/1879
JULY 11:
KCXM: 100/2001
JULY 12:
KCXM: 97/1966
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 8:
KCXM: 83/2016
KSAV: 80/1990
JULY 9:
KCHS: 80/1998
KCXM: 85/1998
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 10:
KCHS: 81/1986
KCXM: 82/1986
JULY 11:
KCHS: 80/2016
KCXM: 82/2016
JULY 12:
KCHS: 79/2020
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ099>101-114-
115-137-216-238-240.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ217>219-239-241.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ043-044-147.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045-
148>152.
MARINE...NONE.
BLACK
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