516
FXUS62 KCHS 101833
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
233 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- 3) COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING: OVERALL, THE SETUP AND CONDITIONS
ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE MODIFIED 12Z KCHS RAOB (USING
98/73) MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2,000-2,500 J/KG ALONG WITH DCAPE
IN THE 1,000-1,200 J/KG RANGE. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS A BIT
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AT ~15 KFT AND THE -20C HEIGHT IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AROUND 26.5 KFT. WE ARE ONCE AGAIN GOING
TO BE DEPENDENT ON SURFACE HEATING AND SUBTLE GRADIENTS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION, FOLLOWED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND THE
SEA BREEZE. SURFACE WINDS ARE WESTERLY, WHICH WILL KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE MORE PINNED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE. OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT MOST, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HELP TO DRIVE MULTI-CELL CONVECTION.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORM MOTION WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. STORMS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AFTER SUNSET DEPENDING ON HOW BOUNDARIES EVOLVE.
HOWEVER, BY THE LATE EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END
AND THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.
SATURDAY: ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 90S (AND A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS) IS EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS
INLAND OF THE COAST SHOULD MIX OUT A BIT, POTENTIALLY INTO THE
UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN A FEW MID 60S FOR
SOUTHEAST GA. ONCE THE SEA BREEZE BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND,
DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108 OR HIGHER WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS, THE COVERAGE AND ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH
DCAPE WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTION COULD START IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED CLOSER TO THE
COAST THANKS TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. ONCE A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP AND PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH
OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE BOUNDARIES.
STORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING UNTIL
DISSIPATING AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT AND THEREAFTER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WILL SEE A WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE DRIFT ACROSS VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE EJECTING
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, IT'S ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION, RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MODEL CONSISTENCY STILL REMAINS RATHER
POOR, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS THAT DEVELOP ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG
THE FRONT, MOVING IT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THEN PUSHING
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN, COULD CERTAINLY SEE
A BIT MORE MOISTURE POOL ACROSS US, AND THUS RESULT IN MORE RAIN
- SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE COMING SHIFTS. IN TERMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER, THERE WILL STILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) TO WORK WITH DESPITE HAVING COOLER AFTERNOON
HIGHS. SO, LIKE DAYS PAST, CAN'T RULE OUT SEEING A FEW ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WITH ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDE OF 6.44 FT MLLW OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER 7 PM, ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CHARLESTON PENINSULA WILL ALSO
LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL FLOODING.
EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO MEANDER SOUTH OF THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK, KEEPING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS DURING
THIS TIME SHOULD ALSO BE NOTABLY COOLER, AS TEMPERATURES ONLY
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED, AS A BUILDING RIDGE CAUSES HIGHS TO MODERATE BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES ON TIDES WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A LUNAR PERIGEE ON MONDAY AND A NEW MOON ON TUESDAY. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CHARLESTON AND COASTAL
COLLETON COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING. COASTAL FLOODING MAY INCREASE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RISING ASTRO TIDES AND ONSHORE
WINDS. IN ADDITION, RAINFALL MAY OVERLAP WITH THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLES, SEE KEY MESSAGE 2 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI,
AND KSAV. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE AT KCHS AND KJZI BASED ON
CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE LOOK OF THE
CUMULUS FIELD ON SATELLITE. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE
AROUND KCHS AND KJZI THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. BRIEF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
KSAV COULD ALSO HAVE SOME THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS, BUT WE WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW STORMS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HANDLE
WITH AMENDMENTS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AND THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
QUIET. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, BUT
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE BEYOND THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE,
ALONG WITH RISKS OF ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, MAY INCREASE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: MUCH LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE. THIS
WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE SC WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR,
WHERE GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH 10 PM AND FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE ADVISORIES
TO END. SEAS WILL MOSTLY AVERAGE 2-4 FEET, BUT COULD BE UP TO 5
FT IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS NEAR THE 20 NM LINE. ALSO,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND ALONG THE COAST.
THESE STORMS COULD MOVE OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH ENHANCEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE,
WITH SOME 25 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE SC WATERS. CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-4 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS COULD IMPACT THE COAST AND THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL
SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, CAUSING WINDS
TO BECOME NOTABLY WEAKER. WHILE WINDS LOOK TO START OUT WESTERLY
SUNDAY, SHOULD SEE DIRECTION GRADUALLY TURN MORE
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SEAS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 FT.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE SC/GA COAST SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE 2-3 FT
SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS UP TO 9 SECONDS. IN ADDITION, SSW WINDS
WILL LIKELY GENERATE A MODERATE LONGSHORE CURRENT, POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING RIP CURRENTS NEAR PIERS AND JETTIES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 10:
KCHS: 100/1986
KCXM: 99/1986
KSAV: 102/1879
JULY 11:
KCHS: 102/1986
KCXM: 100/2001
KSAV: 103/1980
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 10:
KCHS: 81/1986
KCXM: 82/1986
JULY 11:
KCHS: 80/2016
KCXM: 82/2016
JULY 12:
KCHS: 79/2020
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ217>219-239-
241.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ217>219-
239-241.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ044-045-148-
149-151.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ045-
148>152.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ150-
152.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ360.
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