576
FXUS62 KCHS 191136
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
736 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
OVERALL PLAYERS REMAIN THE SAME ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND A PESKY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY DID NOT GO ENTIRELY AS PLAN AND AS
DEWPOINTS WERE ABLE TO MIX AND TEMPERATURES DID NOT QUITE
INCREASE AS HIGH AS WE WERE EXPECTING. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO INCREASED WINDS
ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING. AS A RESULT MOST AREAS FELL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE SLOWLY ORGANIZING SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF AND THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHS TOPPING OUT MORE IN THE LOW TO
MAYBE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS ABLE TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW 70S.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
RANGE AND WHILE THIS IS STILL HOT, THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH
NORMAL SUMMERTIME FOR THE AREA. THE BIGGER QUESTIONS COME ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVES. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY OUR DISTURBANCE IN THE
GULF AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS WESTWARD. THE USUAL TROUBLE AREAS
BEHIND THE SEABREEZE COULD START TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 108 TO 110.
THERE IS SOME GOOD NEWS IN THAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LEADING TO
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND AT LEAST A BRIEF END TO THE HEAT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL KCHS/KJZI/KSAV THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE SHIFTS INLAND BETWEEN 16-18Z FOR
KCHS/KJZI AND ~20Z FOR KSAV. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
BEHIND THE SEABREEZE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z
WITH WINDS SLOWLY RELAXING AND TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 06Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EACH AFTERNOON FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
MARINE
TODAY: AS THE LOCAL WATERS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN AN INLAND TROUGH
AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE EAST, THIS WILL YIELD BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE
FROM 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS (ESP. ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
CHARLESTON WATERS). THUS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON WATERS THROUGH MONDAY 06Z (2AM).
AS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL SLOWLY TAPERS BACK, EXPECT SEAS TO
RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THIS AFOREMENTIONED INLAND TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
POSSIBLE ROUND OF SCAS (ESP. IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE
WATERS). THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) CONTINUES TO MONITOR A
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT,
WITH A 60% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IF THIS SYSTEM
WERE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK UP THE SE COASTLINE THERE WOULD BE
ADDITIONAL WIND AND WAVE CONCERNS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL
BEACHES, GIVEN THE 3 TO 4 FT SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS UP TO 6
SECONDS. IN ADDITION, SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY GENERATE
A MODERATE LONGSHORE CURRENT, POSSIBLY SUPPORTING RIP CURRENTS NEAR
PIERS AND JETTIES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 18:
KCHS: 79/2007
KCXM: 81/2007
JULY 19:
KCHS: 79/1986
KCXM: 83/1986
JULY 20:
KCHS: 79/2025
KCXM: 83/2000
KSAV: 79/1942
JULY 21:
KCHS: 80/1986
KCXM: 83/1998
JULY 22:
KCHS: 81/2011
KCXM: 83/2011
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ360.
BLACK/DENNIS
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