784
FXUS62 KCHS 192219
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
619 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A NEW KEY MESSAGE FOR SMOKE GENERATED BY THE HORSE ISLAND
WILDFIRE WAS INTRODUCED. THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS WERE
ALSO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SMOKE FROM THE HORSE ISLAND WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT NORTHEAST
BERKELEY COUNTY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA INTO
MIDWEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED.
- 3) A SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SMOKE FROM THE HORSE ISLAND WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT
NORTHEAST BERKELEY COUNTY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY HAS BEEN REQUESTED BY THE U.S. FOREST
SERVICE FOR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF BERKELEY COUNTY IN RESPONSE TO
THE HORSE ISLAND WILDFIRE. SMOKE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE IS
SIGNIFICANT AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. THE LATEST HYSPLIT OUTPUT SHOWS
THE WORST OF THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST BERKELEY
COUNTY AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SANTEE RIVER INTO A SMALL AREA
OF SOUTHWEST GEORGETOWN COUNTY. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW 1/4
MILE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG PARTS OF HIGHWAY 45.
ROAD CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE. SMOKE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AN ISSUE
INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE SOME BY MID-
MORNING AS DISPERSION INCREASES AND MIXING HEIGHTS RISE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA INTO MIDWEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
OVERALL PLAYERS REMAIN THE SAME ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WILL SEE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS ABLE TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW 70S. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE
AND WHILE THIS IS STILL HOT, THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. THE BIGGER QUESTIONS COME
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVES. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
GULF AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS WESTWARD. THE USUAL TROUBLE AREAS
BEHIND THE SEABREEZE COULD START TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 108 TO 110.
THIS COULD REQUIRE HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BRING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
MONDAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHERN GULF (TD2) AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY, WITH TD2
SLOWLY SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS WESTWARD A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, LIKELY STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS STALLED FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON THURSDAY, WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OVER NORTHERN CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES.
AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
20/00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KSAV/KJZI: VFR THROUGH 21/00Z. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO SETUP WEST OF
THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR THROUGH MID WEEK. CHANCES
OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK WITH A GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: AS THE LOCAL WATERS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN AN INLAND
TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE EAST, THIS WILL YIELD
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ELEVATED SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST, RANGING FROM 15-20 KT OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-4 FT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE MARINE WATERS WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHERN GULF (TD2). MID-WEEK A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION, STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR
OUR SE GA BEACHES MONDAY, GIVEN ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE
COASTLINE AND WAVE PERIODS UP TO 6 SECONDS. A MODERATE RISK
RETURNS TO ALL AREA BEACHES ON TUESDAY AS 6 SECOND SWELL AND
ENHANCED SSW/SW WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE ENTIRE COASTLINE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 19:
KCHS: 79/1986
KCXM: 83/1986
JULY 20:
KCHS: 79/2025
KCXM: 83/2000
KSAV: 79/1942
JULY 21:
KCHS: 80/1986
KCXM: 83/1998
JULY 22:
KCHS: 81/2011
KCXM: 83/2011
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...NONE.
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