886
FXUS62 KCHS 231917
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
317 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND COULD BRING A RISK OF FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD BRING A RISK OF FLOODING TO PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY, THEN TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR NEARBY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT. PWATS COULD MAKE A RUN FOR 2.5" THIS WEEKEND, WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE THE 90% MARK FOR CHS SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, AND
MAY BE APPROACHING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER NAEFS. THIS DEEP
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE FRONT WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. WHILE MOST
FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR, REPEATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OVER URBAN AREAS, SUCH AS THE CHARLESTON OR SAVANNAH
METRO AREAS, COULD WARRANT FLOOD ADVISORIES AND/OR FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3" APPEAR LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
WHERE THERE IS TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (WPC) HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WITH A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
18Z TAFS: VFR WITH WINDS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A FRONT NEARBY WILL BRING PERIODS OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR WATERS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. IT'LL TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
OR NEARBY THIS WEEKEND, YIELDING INCREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE FRONT, MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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