655
FXUS62 KCHS 232347
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
747 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 0Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND COULD BRING A RISK OF FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD BRING A RISK OF FLOODING TO PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY, THEN TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR NEARBY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT. PWATS COULD MAKE A RUN FOR 2.5" THIS WEEKEND, WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE THE 90% MARK FOR CHS SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, AND
MAY BE APPROACHING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER NAEFS. THIS DEEP
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE FRONT WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. WHILE MOST
FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR, REPEATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OVER URBAN AREAS, SUCH AS THE CHARLESTON OR SAVANNAH
METRO AREAS, COULD WARRANT FLOOD ADVISORIES AND/OR FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3" APPEAR LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
WHERE THERE IS TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (WPC) HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WITH A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
0Z TAFS: CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
LIGHT SW WINDS. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HREF INDICATES THAT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A SEA BREEZE ACROSS KCHS AND KJZI BETWEEN 18-22Z. THESE
STORMS WILL TAP INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY DEEP
MOISTURE, CREATING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. CONDITIONS DURING
THUNDERSTORMS COULD RAPIDLY BECOME RESTRICTIVE. THE TAFS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPOS FROM
18-20Z AT KCHS AND KJZI, ONE HOUR LATER AT KSAV.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A FRONT NEARBY WILL BRING PERIODS OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR WATERS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. IT'LL TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
OR NEARBY THIS WEEKEND, YIELDING INCREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE FRONT, MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 29:
KCHS: 100/1993
KCXM: 99/1999
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 23:
KCHS: 80/1991
KCXM: 83/1952
JULY 24:
KCHS: 81/2024
JULY 25:
KCHS: 80/2011
KCXM: 82/2016
KSAV: 80/1893
JULY 26:
KCHS: 78/2025
KSAV: 80/1884
JULY 28:
KCHS: 80/2025
JULY 29:
KCHS: 80/2016
KSAV: 82/1878
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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