712
FXUS62 KCHS 030038
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
838 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 00Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR.
- 2) WET CONDITIONS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MONDAY, WITH THE THREAT POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
- 3) THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR.
RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED THAT PW VALUES ACROSS SE GA AND SC
RANGED BETWEEN 2.1-2.3 INCHES. AS TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S, INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. MLCAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG, WITH THE
GREATEST VALUES OVER INLAND GA/SC. GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND LITTLE
TO NO INHIBITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. KCLX VWP AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR, MULTI-CELL STORMS OVER
SOUTHERN GA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST PUSH OVER SE GA THIS
AFTERNOON, REACHING THE SC LOWCOUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR, THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
OUTPACE THE DEEP CONVECTION AS IT REACHES THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.
GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE, THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BRING ROUNDS OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IF THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN OR PRODUCE FREQUENT
CELL MERGERS OVER THE AREA OF SATURDAY'S HEAVY RAIN, EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. IN ADDITION, A FEW STORMS MAY EXPERIENCE
COLLAPSING RAIN-LOADED UPDRAFTS, PRODUCING SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WET CONDITIONS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MONDAY, WITH THE THREAT POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. MONDAY MORNING
WILL GENERATE A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY MORNING, SLOWLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE DEEP MOISTURE. PWATS
WILL PEAK AROUND 2.3" DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY, OR ROUGHLY
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING INTO THE 2.0-2.2" RANGE BY THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 1,000
J/KG, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY LONG, NARROW CAPE
PROFILES, FAVORING EFFICIENT WARM-RAIN PROCESSES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES DESPITE THE WEAKER INSTABILITY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR. GIVEN
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL, LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS WILL INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. URBAN AND POOR-
DRAINAGE AREAS, INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA, COULD BE
PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE, POTENTIALLY WARRANTING FLOOD ADVISORIES OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. WPC UPDATED THEIR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
TO REFLECT THIS. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. THOUGH, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER, WHICH COULD SUPPORT
LOWER RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING SEAS AND INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT A
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES. A
MODERATE RISK IS IN PLACE FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH INTO THE GEORGIA
COAST.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AREA WIDE WITH A BATCH
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS IMPACTING CHS/JZI OVER THE NEXT HALF
HOUR TO HOUR. MINIMAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH A
FEW INSTANCES OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND SAV AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AT ALL AREA TERMINALS
MAINLY FROM ABOUT 07Z TO 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
MARINE
TONIGHT, THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A BERMUDA HIGH AND A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SHOULD SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO
30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TONIGHT. IN ADDITION,
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING,
POSSIBLY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.
EXTENDED MARINE: WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND LOWER ON MONDAY, SO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GRADUALLY EXPIRE DURING THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS: MONDAY: FOR OUR SC BEACHES, OUR INTERNAL CALCULATOR
BARELY HAS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, WHILE RCMOS HAS A HIGH
RISK. FOR OUR GA BEACHES, OUR INTERNAL CALCULATOR HAS A LOW RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS, WHILE RCMOS HAS A MODERATE RISK. LIFEGUARDS HAVE NOT
REPORTED ANY RIP CURRENTS OUTSIDE OF TYBEE THROUGH THIS (SUNDAY)
AFTERNOON. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND, WE OPTED TO GO WITH A MODERATE
RISK AT ALL OF OUR BEACHES.
HIGH SURF: NWPS BREAKING WAVE HEIGHT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW
CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES COULD SEE A BREAKERS AS HIGH AS 5 FT AT
TIMES, MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THESE
INSTANCES LOOK PRETTY SPARSE AND WITH MOST BREAKERS HOLDING IN THE 3-
4 FT. SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE LARGE BREAKERS WILL OCCUR AFTER 8
PM, NO HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 2:
KCHS: 79/2022
KCXM: 84/1999
KSAV: 80/1886
AUGUST 5:
KCHS: 79/1980
KCXM: 82/1991
KSAV: 80/1883
AUGUST 6:
KCHS: 79/1991
KCXM: 82/2006
KSAV: 80/1899
AUGUST 7:
KCHS: 79/2007
KCXM: 83/2007
KSAV: 80/1879
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ360.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ364.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ384.
BLACK/NED
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page