763
FXUS62 KCHS 051822
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
222 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL KEY MESSAGES AND SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SEA
BREEZE.
- 2) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SEA
BREEZE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: RENEWED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER, UNLIKE THIS MORNING, SHOULD SEE MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY DEVELOP INLAND RATHER THAN ALONG THE COAST. AS NOTED
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, OVERALL FORCING REMAINS RATHER MEAGER,
SUGGESTING THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIRMASS INDUCED AND DRIVEN BY
MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THOUGH WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT OUTLOOKED IN SPC'S
LATEST DAY 1 SEVERE RISK, DO WANT TO POINT OUT THAT AN ISOLATED
STORM COULD STILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING, BUT THERE ARE INCREASING
SIGNALS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REFOCUSES CLOSER TO
THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WOULD BE FAVORED BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LIKE TODAY, COULD SEE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN OR LOW-LYING AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SUPPORT DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION, WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ANY
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SERVING AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH
PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AND SBCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG. THESE
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES, WITH SOME STORMS
CAPABLE OF DROPPING A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD. IN
ADDITION, SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 10 KT, COMBINED WITH TRAINING
OR REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION, COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FRIDAY COULD BE THE EXCEPTION, AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WITH POCKETS OF PWATS AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES SHOULD
LIMIT THE FLOODING THREAT. LASTLY, WITH LITTLE SHEAR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT, STORMS WILL REMAIN PULSE-LIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
18Z TAFS: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
NEAR KCHS/KJZI, AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FURTHER SOUTH. OUTSIDE OF
SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS
LARGELY PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE, ANOTHER ROUND OF
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND PUSH
ONSHORE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/LOCATION HASN'T IMPROVED, HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH PROB30
GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08-12Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH WINDS AVERAGING 15 KTS OR LESS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH SEAS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GENERATE A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WIND FIELD WITH INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE EACH AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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