673
FXUS62 KCHS 060050
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
850 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR LATEST TRENDS. THE AVIATION
SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT.
- 2) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT.
TONIGHT: ACTIVITY WELL INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IS EXPECTED
TO WANE AND/OR SHIFT FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING, BUT THERE ARE
SIGNALS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REFOCUSES CLOSER TO
THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO BE FAVORED FOR EXPERIENCING
SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING DAYBREAK THURSDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. LIKE EARLIER
TODAY, LOCATIONS COULD SEE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN OR LOW-LYING AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SUPPORT DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION, WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ANY
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SERVING AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH
PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AND SBCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG. THESE
PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES, WITH SOME STORMS
CAPABLE OF DROPPING A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD. IN
ADDITION, SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 10 KT, COMBINED WITH TRAINING
OR REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION, COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FRIDAY COULD BE THE EXCEPTION, AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WITH POCKETS OF PWATS AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES SHOULD
LIMIT THE FLOODING THREAT. LASTLY, WITH LITTLE SHEAR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT, STORMS WILL REMAIN PULSE-LIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD REDUCE VSBYS AT
CHS/JZI LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED AT CHS BETWEEN 09-19Z THURSDAY AT CHS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
PRODUCED BY LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND LATE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE A BIT HIGHER AT JZI WITH
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS INCLUDED IN THE LATEST TAF DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 09-19Z THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AT SAV TONIGHT SO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN REMOVED, BUT A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
BETWEEN 14-18Z THURSDAY FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE HEATING TAKES PLACE AND A SEA BREEZE SHIFTS INLAND.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH WINDS AVERAGING 15 KTS OR LESS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH SEAS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GENERATE A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WIND FIELD WITH INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE EACH AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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