173
FXUS62 KCHS 061826
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
226 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS. FOR KEY MESSAGE 2, THERE IS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY, AS WELL AS MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SATURDAY, SPREADING INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AVIATION SECTION WAS
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
- 2) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST EACH
DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
THE KCLX RADAR CONTINUES TO DETECT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE
KCHS 12Z RAOB SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAD A PWAT VALUE OF 1.9",
WITH MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC SHOWING AROUND 2.1" ACROSS THE REGION
AS OF 2 PM. STORM MOTIONS THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, HOWEVER THEY APPEAR FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS BACK ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY DOES NOT LOOK AS EXTENSIVE AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, BUT SOME DEGREE OF ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE COAST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE UPPER SUBSIDENCE LIKELY
SUPPRESSES MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY, THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY THEREAFTER. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT SATURDAY WILL BEGIN WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GA BEACHES, WITH OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
NEW ACTIVITY NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THEN, SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THE SEA BREEZE
AND ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. MODERATE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON,
WITH SBCAPE VALUES RISING TO 2500-3000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY ONWARD WILL SUPPORT
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES, WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF DROPPING A
QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD. IN ADDITION, SLOW STORM
MOTIONS OF AROUND 10 KT, COMBINED WITH TRAINING OR REPEATED ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION, COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
LASTLY, WITH LITTLE SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT, STORMS WILL REMAIN
PULSE-LIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, A
FEW STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAFS AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS HAVE PUSHED INLAND OF THE TERMINALS AS OF 18Z AND
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON ARE UNLIKELY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS IT INLAND OF
THE TERMINALS. THEREFORE HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF IT IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ONSHORE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE EACH AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
NOCTURNAL JETTING TO SET UP SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ALONG THE BEACHES OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
IS TYPICALLY POORLY RESOLVED BY MODELS, BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND WITH PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND VERY WARM WATER MAKES FOR A FAVORABLE
SETUP.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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