259
FXUS62 KCHS 070032
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
832 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS
TONIGHT. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE. THE MARINE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT ONGOING
TRENDS TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
- 2) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST EACH
DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A SLOW WANING OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT LIKELY DIMINISHING
ACROSS REMAINING LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO DUE TO
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS BACK ALONG THE WEST
WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY DOES NOT LOOK
AS EXTENSIVE AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, BUT SOME DEGREE OF ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE
COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE UPPER SUBSIDENCE LIKELY
SUPPRESSES MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY, THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY THEREAFTER. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT SATURDAY WILL BEGIN WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GA BEACHES, WITH OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
NEW ACTIVITY NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THEN, SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THE SEA BREEZE
AND ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. MODERATE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON,
WITH SBCAPE VALUES RISING TO 2500-3000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY ONWARD WILL SUPPORT
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES, WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF DROPPING A
QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD. IN ADDITION, SLOW STORM
MOTIONS OF AROUND 10 KT, COMBINED WITH TRAINING OR REPEATED ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION, COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
LASTLY, WITH LITTLE SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT, STORMS WILL REMAIN
PULSE-LIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, A
FEW STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ARRIVE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
12-18Z TIMEFRAME SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH WINDS/SEAS REMAINING WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
HOWEVER, ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE EACH AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
NOCTURNAL JETTING TO SET UP SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ALONG THE BEACHES OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
IS TYPICALLY POORLY RESOLVED BY MODELS, BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND WITH PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND VERY WARM WATER MAKES FOR A FAVORABLE
SETUP.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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