512
FXUS62 KCHS 171830
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HEAT WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- 2) SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING: HOT AND OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY COME TO AN END EARLY THIS
EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE EFFECTS OF THE EXPANSIVE
RIDGE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. BUBBLING CUMULUS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SC AND SOUTHEASTERN GA CONVERGING WITH THE
STRUGGLING SEA BREEZE IS THE ONLY HINT A THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT HEADLINES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TUESDAY: HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF REGIONS. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AS THE HEAT WAVE PEAKS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MANY AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS
PEAK AROUND 100 DEGREES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS LIMITED. THE SETUP FAVORS SOME MIXING OUT OF SFC
DEWPTS ACROSS INLAND AREAS, BUT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NEAR AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SUPPORTS SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF I- 95. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS ON TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING
HAS BEEN EXPANDED A ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND ACROSS THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEASTERN GA.
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY: THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE
STARTING TO WEAKEN WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION RETURNS DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS MID TO LATE WEEK. WE COULD SEE HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS PRIOR TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR. FRIDAY
REMAINS WARM, BUT GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK.
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE 1 WILL PROVIDE
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. WHILE EACH
MODEL HAS DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW MUCH WILL BE IN PLACE AND
WHERE THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
BE SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2,000-3,000 J/KG RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER PEAKS. DCAPE VALUES SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 1,000 J/KG.
THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS CAMS AND THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS, WITH MANY POINTING TO IT BEING DRY EACH
AFTERNOON OR MINIMAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE IS HARD TO IGNORE. LIKEWISE, IT WON'T TAKE
MUCH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT INLAND. THEREFORE, WE
RAISED POPS EACH AFTERNOON, GENERALLY GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE. THE OUTFLOW AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD PLAY A
MAJOR ROLE IN ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION AND PERSISTENCE. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A
CONCERN DUE TO THE VERY WEAK STEERING WINDS AND ELEVATED PWATS.
BACKBUILDING AND/OR TRAINING OF STORMS COULD DROP ENOUGH
RAINFALL TO GENERATE VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING. ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE EACH EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
18Z TAFS: VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACT TO
TAF SITES IS LOW. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT, THEREFORE
STRATUS AND FOG CHANCES ARE LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH LIMITED IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, WHICH COULD RESULT IN TEMPO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY: WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, GUSTING
UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WINDS CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE
2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT IN THE 20-60 NM LEG.
EXTENDED MARINE: THERE WILL BE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN GULF, WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING PERSISTS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WIND PATTERN
WITH WINDS/SEAS THAT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. IN
GENERAL, SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BACK TO A MORE SOUTH DIRECTION EACH
DAY, PEAKING IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SEA BREEZE, THEN
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114-115-137-216-218-238.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
099-100-114-115-137.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ101-
216>219-238>241.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ217-
219-239>241.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>044-
147.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ040-042-
043.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ044-
045-147>152.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045-
148>152.
MARINE...NONE.
ILM
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