454
FXUS62 KCHS 292333
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
733 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT: CLOUD COVER HELD STRONG FOR MOST OF THE DAY HELPING TO
KEEP INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED BUT HAS SO FAR REMAINED
PRETTY WEAK AND MOSTLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE EVENING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND THEN FOCUS FOR LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN SHIFT OFFSHORE. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST MIGHT HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ONSHORE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE
FEATURES TO FOCUS ON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN UP
AROUND 2.25 INCHES THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCER. SO, SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FROM AROUND
BEAUFORT SOUTH.
SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AFTER THE STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES. DIURNAL HEATING
WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY, WITH SBCAPE VALUES 2500-3000
J/KG. HOWEVER, WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION, KEEPING THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LARGELY MESOSCALE-DRIVEN, WITH THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY PRIMARILY INITIATING ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING SUNDAY, BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUS DAYS'
DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LACK IN COVERAGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REFLECT A CLASSIC HEAVY-RAINFALL PROFILE WITH PWATS 2.1-2.2
INCHES AND WEAK STEERING ALOFT (~10 KT). BECAUSE THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE RELATIVELY SLOWLY, RAIN RATES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1 TO
2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD DUMP HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT WINDOW. TO
NOTE, HREF PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW A COUPLE SPOTS WITH
A 20-40% CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES OF RAIN. NONETHELESS, MINOR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING AND FLOOD-PRONE/URBAN AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV TO START THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD ACROSS KCHS
AND KJZI WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KSAV. THERE COULD
BE SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH THIS RAINFALL AND
THROUGH THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCES OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS
WILL COME LATE TONIGHT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
KSAV. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN TIMED TO BE NEAR KCHS AND KJZI
STARTING AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
MIDDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: ONSHORE WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
DIRECTIONS NEAR THE BEACHES LIKELY BACKING MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST LATE. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: EXPECT BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
OVERALL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE PREVAILING FLOW WILL SHIFT ONSHORE
EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COAST.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page