380
FXUS62 KCHS 301815
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
215 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A THREAT THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
THEREAFTER, RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DWINDLE INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK.
-2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A THREAT THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY. THEREAFTER, RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DWINDLE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK.
REST OF TODAY: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TODAY FROM THAT
OBSERVED YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING DOMINATES ALOFT WHILE A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. WITH THESE TWO FEATURES INFLUENCING THE REGION
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. PWATS REMAIN
QUITE HIGH, AS SHOWN THROUGH THE 12Z KCHS RAOB SOUNDING (2.2" PWAT)
AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ANALYZING 2.3" AS OF 17Z. THE KCLX RADAR
SHOWS A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE AS OF 17Z, EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
BERKELEY COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE MORNING TIME CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
LIKELY OVERTURNED THE ATMOSPHERE, LIMITING HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO GET GOING. ADDITIONALLY, THE THICK CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. EARLIER THIS MORNING A STORM ON TYBEE ISLAND, GA DROPPED ~5" IN
ABOUT 3 HOURS. ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO FORM WILL LIKELY BE A VERY
EFFICIENT RAINMAKER AND COULD POSE A HEAVY RAINFALL RISK.
REST OF THIS WEEK: THE TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN TOMORROW WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DWINDLE EACH DAY, WITH POPS ONLY
AROUND 15% BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ITS APPEARING LIKE SUMMER HEAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
FINAL STAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US FLATTENS OUT AND SLOWLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. WE LOOK TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
AND WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE A LOFT, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY WITH
THE DRIER CONDITIONS COMES HOTTER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH ALL THE
SUNSHINE. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF
EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI), THIS HEAT DOES NOT LOOK TO PACK
THE SAME PUNCH AS OUR HEAT WAVE EARLIER IN THE SUMMER GIVEN OUR
POSITION WITH RESPECT TO THE RIDGE. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE
LEANING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS EXPECTED FROM
A STOUT RIDGE; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDE
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IF THE RIDGE ENDS UP
TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER THEN WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE THINGS
TREND A LITTLE WARMER THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE IT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT PRODUCTS WOULD ALSO INCREASE. NONETHELESS, IT
DOES APPEAR LIKELY FOR OUR HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
105 TO 110 RANGE WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS LIKELY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF A HEAT ADVISORY OR TWO MAY
BE NEEDED LATE WEEK BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS AT
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KCHS/KJZI OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
KSAV WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO ADDRESS THE
THREAT OF SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN GA COASTLINE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
BEFORE MORE IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: E/NE WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT (OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION)
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GA WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS EXPECTED. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE PREVAILING FLOW WILL SHIFT ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST, WITH 2-3 FT
SEAS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BLACK/CPM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page