774
FXUS62 KCHS 302323
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
723 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY. THEREAFTER,
RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
-2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY: THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME
OVERNIGHT FEATURING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS WELL,
AND THE SETUP WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOADING UP
OFFSHORE AND THEN MAKING A RUN FOR THE COAST AND ATTEMPTING TO
PUSH INLAND. LATE TONIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN FAVORING
THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST FOR BEING IN THE TRAJECTORY OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TRACKING TOWARD THE COAST. TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF A
QUESTION, BUT CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AROUND AND
JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING. FOCUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES STARTING
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SC COAST. ANY EARLY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND INTO THE
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH SUCH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES,
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FORWARD MOTION
TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOWN. STILL, THERE COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT SEE POCKETS OF 2+ INCHES.
REST OF THIS WEEK: THE TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN TOMORROW WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGING SLOWLY
BUILDS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DWINDLE EACH DAY, WITH
POPS ONLY AROUND 15% BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
ITS APPEARING LIKE SUMMER HEAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A FINAL STAND
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US
FLATTENS OUT AND SLOWLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC. WE
LOOK TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND WITH
AMPLE SUBSIDENCE A LOFT, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE DRIER
CONDITIONS COMES HOTTER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY CLIMB
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH ALL THE SUNSHINE. LOOKING
AT SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX (EFI), THIS HEAT DOES NOT LOOK TO PACK THE SAME PUNCH AS
OUR HEAT WAVE EARLIER IN THE SUMMER GIVEN OUR POSITION WITH
RESPECT TO THE RIDGE. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE LEANING A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS EXPECTED FROM A STOUT RIDGE;
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE
GUIDANCE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IF THE RIDGE ENDS UP TRENDING A LITTLE
STRONGER THEN WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE THINGS TREND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE IT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
PRODUCTS WOULD ALSO INCREASE. NONETHELESS, IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY
FOR OUR HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 105 TO 110 RANGE
WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WOULD NOT
BE SHOCKED IF A HEAT ADVISORY OR TWO MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEEK BUT
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV. THE FIRST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST
CHANCES OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE JUST INLAND OF THE TAF SITES,
BUT ALL 3 WILL BE AT RISK. FOR NOW WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
MVFR, BUT DO INCLUDE THESE CEILINGS AT ALL 3 SITES STARTING
AROUND 10Z. THIS STRATUS, IF IT DEVELOPS, COULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THE NEXT CONCERN IS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ONSHORE. GUIDANCE IS AGAIN FAVORING THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST, MEANING THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AT
KSAV BEGINNING AROUND 12Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY. AT KCHS AND KJZI, THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY
COME IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK BEFORE MORE IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: E/NE WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT (OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION)
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GA WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS EXPECTED.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE PREVAILING FLOW WILL SHIFT ONSHORE EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COAST, WITH 2-3 FT SEAS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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