444
FXUS62 KCHS 011100
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
700 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
TODAY: THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL STEADILY EXPAND EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TODAY WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. POISED TO
RISE ABOUT 10-20 METERS. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE NO INDICATION
OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING TODAY, BUT THE NET
MOISTURE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY
DRIER WITH PWATS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 1.75-1.95 RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM SUGGEST THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE LOW WITH ONLY PARTS OF THE LOWER-MIDDLE
GEORGIA COAST REALLY THE ONLY SPOTS WHERE MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME DEGREE AIRMASS DRIVEN
CONVECTION. ANY MOIST UPDRAFTS THAT TRY TO INITIATE OUTSIDE OF
THIS AREA SHOULD QUICKLY ENTRAIN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND CHOKE OFF BEFORE MATURING. 20-30% POPS WERE HIGHLIGHTED
ALONG/SOUTH OF A GLENNVILLE-HINESVILLE-KELLER LINE WITH POPS
<10% ELSEWHERE. THE SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
TODAY SO THE RISK FOR MISCIBLE RAINFALL IN THIS AREA SHOULD
QUICKLY END BY MID-AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY: THE 595 DM UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
WILL BECOME POSITIONED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY MID-WEEK AND
LINGER INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY HOT, DRY AND
SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WITH A PROGRESSIVE RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE LIKELY TO OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
850 HPA THETA-E RETURN ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANKS OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY (MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA), BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES SITUATED.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
THE WARMER SIDE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. AS THE REGION SLIDES UNDER
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN
THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
INLAND, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S.
EXPECT VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST,
THOUGH IF THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE WARMEST DAY
IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
WESTWARDS WHILE A TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN
THE UPPER 90S. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE MAY
REQUIRE A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
ON SATURDAY, AS EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
AND THUS RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY, BRINGING AN END TO THIS STRETCH OF HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
01/12Z TAFS:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 02/12Z.
THERE IS ANOTHER WINDOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LOW CLOUDS JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WERE LIMITED TO FEW-SCT003-004
FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
REGIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: THERE ARE NO CONCERNS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BACK MORE EASTERLY AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. EAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN NEAR THE BEACHES LATE. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED (10-15 KT) ALONG THE COAST AS
DAILY SEA BREEZES DEVELOP, THEN SHIFT INLAND. 3-4 FT SEAS ON
WEDNESDAY SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH SFC TROUGHING, WITH REGIONAL CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page